The likelihood of the leading cryptocurrency reaching $200,000 by the year’s end is deemed “extremely unlikely” by experts at 10x Research.
$200,000 Bitcoin? The Math Says Otherwise
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In our July 30 report, “Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds,” we estimated a 54% probability of Bitcoin reaching our $140,000 year-end target—but with a clear downward bias, as we… pic.twitter.com/q3EvvOdwLu
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) August 26, 2025
They assess the probability of Bitcoin rising to $140,000 at just 54%. The analysts’ pessimism is attributed to three key factors:
- slowing institutional inflows;
- large-scale sell-offs by miners;
- the traditional weakness of the third quarter, during which Bitcoin consistently shows poor performance.
These concerns are corroborated by data from CryptoQuant. The buy-sell ratio of the leading cryptocurrency has dropped to -0.945, indicating a dominance of sellers. According to the analyst known as Gaah, similar levels were observed at the peak in November 2021, followed by a correction.
Users of the prediction platform Polymarket share the skepticism. Only 9% believe Bitcoin will reach $200,000. A more realistic target is $125,000, with a 71% probability.
$160,000 by Christmas
Economist Timothy Peterson forecasted Bitcoin’s rise to $160,000 by the end of the year. Based on historical data, he noted that in 70% of cases, the leading cryptocurrency appreciates from late August to late December with an average return of 44%.
Under such conditions, by Catholic Christmas, the digital gold’s rate could reach $160,000.
However, the expert emphasized that his observations are more of a guideline than a strict rule. For instance, he excluded 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 as atypical due to unique market and economic conditions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,900.
Earlier in late August, an analyst noted a repetition of the second quarter pattern on Bitcoin’s chart. At that time, the asset reached an all-time high of $112,000 before falling to $98,000.