Indicators Suggest Bitcoin May Have Hit a Local Bottom

Over the past three weeks, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen by 15% from $70,000. However, after a noticeable rebound on June 25 from $60,000, signs of a potential local bottom have emerged. This conclusion was reached by CryptoQuant.

From an on-chain analysis perspective, the quotes crossed the realized price level of short-term holders at $62,000.

Currently, the average profitability of this category of market participants has turned slightly negative, which historically serves as support for local corrections during upward trends, experts explained.

In their view, in recent months, a significant factor influencing price dynamics has been macroeconomic statistics from the United States due to its impact on the policy of the Fed and, consequently, investors’ risk appetite.

Analysts noted that GDP data and unemployment benefit claims will be released on June 27, followed by an inflation report the next day.

Derivative Market Signals

During the specified period, open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures decreased by ~$3 billion, primarily due to the liquidation of longs.

Funding rates for perpetual contracts fell almost to zero, indicating a greater balance between buyers and sellers, creating a healthier and less optimistic price structure, specialists noted.

On June 28, options on bitcoin ($6.68 billion) and Ethereum ($3.5 billion) will expire, accounting for 40% of the total open interest across all open contracts ($23 billion).

In a conversation with CoinDesk, Deribit Executive Director Luuk Strijers stated that more than 25% of OI expires in the money. In other words, their holders will profit.

“The recent decline was caused by miner sell-offs, some pressure from the German government, and, of course, the upcoming Mt.Gox coin transfer, expected in early July. While short-term bearish sentiment is evident, traders anticipate a positive shift for bitcoin by July 12, and for Ethereum a week earlier. The launch of an ETH-ETF is expected in the first week of July,” commented the specialist.

Earlier, QCP Capital predicted Ethereum’s rise to $4800, based on crypto derivatives positioning.

Previously, Sam Callahan of Swan Bitcoin stated that the bearish pressure associated with the Mt.Gox distribution might be less than market participants anticipate.