Bitcoin’s $100,000 Surge: A 10% Probability According to Options Data

Open positions in the bitcoin options market on Deribit indicate a 9.57% probability of the asset surpassing $100,000. This observation was highlighted by CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole.

“Options are derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call contract represents a bullish bet (on buying), while a put protects against downward price movement,” the expert reminded.

According to him, the stated estimate “only seems odd.” In reality, most market participants expect the leading cryptocurrency to move towards the $80,000 mark, Godbole believes.

“The current market volatility of cash-settled bitcoin options expiring on December 27 is 54%. This means that at best, the price will rise by more than 22% to about $82,000 by the end of the year,” stated Griffin Ardern from BloFin.

However, the expert noted that price fluctuations are always “bidirectional,” so a reasonable decline in quotes cannot be ruled out.

The chances of bitcoin reaching $100,000 soon fluctuate depending on several factors, the main one being the US presidential elections, Godbole emphasized.

“The victory of [Kamala] Harris or [Donald] Trump is not fully priced in, and crypto investors need to be prepared for high volatility in any case,” remarked Two Prime CEO Alexander Blum.

In his assessment, most market participants have bet on the Republican candidate. Therefore, Harris’s leadership will not be a positive factor for bitcoin in the short term.

Earlier, Standard Chartered predicted that the leading cryptocurrency would reach a high above $73,000 amid the US electoral campaign.

Experts at Bitwise identified the conditions for bitcoin reaching over $80,000 by the end of the year as Trump’s victory, further rate cuts by the Fed, and new stimulus measures for China’s economy.