Coinbase’s Advantage and Traders’ Revenue Decline Amid Potential USDT Ban in the EU

Cryptocurrency exchanges registered in the EU are gradually phasing out the stablecoin USDT as the MiCA regulation comes into effect, given that its issuer, Tether, has yet to obtain the necessary license.

Experts consulted by ForkLog suggest that Coinbase could emerge as the primary beneficiary of this market shift. Its partner company, Circle, already holds a license from the ACPR to issue euro-denominated stablecoins USDC and EURC.

According to Tatiana Maksimenko, founder of New Level Agency, Coinbase has an infrastructural advantage, as it already offers dozens of trading pairs with USDC and various tools utilizing this stablecoin.

“Other major exchanges will have to hastily restructure their product offerings for European users and expand the list of trading pairs with USDC if USDT is banned,” she explained.

Since some trading platforms opted to delist USDT months before the new rules took effect, the market impact has been “smoothed,” according to Ryan Lee, lead analyst at Bitget Research.

“Notably, as Tether faced the loss of the European market, it began investing in issuers of regulated stablecoins. For instance, the organization invested in Quantoz. However, the company has not taken steps to obtain permission to operate in Europe,” he noted.

The analyst described it as an “extremely worrying sign” that Tether stopped issuing new batches of coins two weeks before the year’s end.

“In the crypto industry, stablecoins are the ‘gunpowder’ for a bull run. The issuance of new Tether often preceded new surges in Bitcoin growth. The company’s refusal to issue more was widely interpreted as a harbinger of an imminent market decline, which indeed occurred,” Lee stated.

He believes that European users will not face difficulties exiting USDC into fiat or other cryptocurrencies.

“Of course, rules vary by country, but overall, there are many legal ways for crypto-fiat transactions. Thus, in the EU, there is no need to seek underground platforms for converting fiat to crypto and vice versa,” the expert added.

Changes in the European market will affect traders’ earnings, as the number of trading pairs with USDT on most exchanges still exceeds those with USDC, warned Tehnobit CEO Alexander Peresichan.

“Users from the EU will face a less diverse listing, which could negatively impact their income. This primarily concerns new cryptocurrencies, which are usually launched in pairs with USDT and rarely immediately with USDC,” he pointed out.

MiCA is being implemented in stages. Most EU countries have introduced a grace period of 12-18 months, allowing gradual adaptation to regulatory requirements. The final deadline for the updated rules to take effect is July 2026.

“Since there have been no clear signals from European regulators, I would not assert a definitive ban on USDT from January 1, 2025. Notably, Binance has not delisted USDT from its European platform, unlike Coinbase. This also suggests that a final decision on the USDT ban has yet to be made,” added Peresichan.

On December 30, as some MiCA provisions took effect, USDT’s market capitalization fell from over $141 billion in mid-month to approximately $137.5 billion.

Previously, Paolo Diomed from The Graph stated that the current version of European regulatory law is a “huge gift” to the traditional banking system.