CryptoQuant CEO Acknowledges Bitcoin Cycle Theory’s Obsolescence

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has declared that the Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer valid, admitting the inaccuracy of his previous forecasts.

#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.

My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.

Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025

According to him, the market previously operated on a simple scheme: “buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins.” However, now old large investors are selling assets to new long-term ones. Institutional players have assumed a more significant role than expected.

“Trading now seems pointless because there are more holders than traders,” wrote the head of CryptoQuant.

The expert once again apologized for the erroneous Bitcoin forecast. In March, Ki Young Ju announced the end of the bull market for the first cryptocurrency, then overlooking the cycle theory’s obsolescence.

“I sincerely apologize if my analyses influenced your investment decisions. In the future, I will focus on data rather than outdated patterns,” he noted.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci pointed out that a steady decline in the balances of small market participants began in 2023. In 2024, active accumulation by whales started, as seen in the chart below.

Diverse Opinions

Not all members of the crypto community agreed with the CryptoQuant CEO’s view on Bitcoin cycles. According to trader Crypto Ex-Insider, this theory has not died but evolved.

Cycle theory didn’t die, it evolved.

The retail vs. whale dynamic got replaced by long-horizon giants reshaping the game.

This isn’t the end of trading, it’s the beginning of a slower, deeper war for supply.

The real shift? Time preference.

— Crypto Ex-Insider 🥷 (@XInsiderCrypto) July 24, 2025

“The clash between retail investors and whales has been replaced by a game of long-term titans reshaping the market. This is not the end of the trading era, but the beginning of a slower and larger battle for liquidity,” he wrote.

User Macrofi noted that the essence of the problem lies in relying on on-chain analysis rather than Bitcoin cycle theories:

“As long as you rely on on-chain data analysis, you will continue to err and adjust your theories, as this data always appears with a delay. This means your new conclusions may also be incorrect.”

Bitcoin to Reach $135,000 by Year-End

Meanwhile, major American bank Citi shared an updated Bitcoin forecast for the end of the year, writes CoinDesk. Analysts presented three scenarios:

• base case: $135,000;
• optimistic: $199,000;
• pessimistic: $64,000.

Experts highlighted three key factors that will shape the cryptocurrency’s price dynamics: user base growth, macroeconomic conditions, and demand from ETFs.

CryptoQuant analyst known as G a a h noted that for the third time in the current cycle, the IBCI metric reached the euphoria zone. However, the value only touched the lower boundary—80%. The market is still in a growth phase, so “it has the potential for new records.”

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at $115,654. According to CoinGecko, the asset’s price has decreased by 2% over the past day. Analysts linked the decline to sales by Galaxy Digital.

Leading Glassnode analyst James Check expressed doubt that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year.