Researchers Debunk Alleged 51% Attack on Monero

The RIAT Institute disputed Qubic’s claims of a 51% attack on the Monero network. Researchers described the incident as a “staged media stunt to promote their own project.”

The information was refuted by analysts from The Block, BitMEX Research, Kaspa project developer Shai Wyborski Shai Wyborski, and the Monero community.

Alex Petrov, co-founder and CIO of Hyperfusion, also suggested in a conversation with ForkLog that the attack was more of a PR campaign than a real threat.

Inflated Figures

RIAT asserts that the information is not supported by data. At the time of the alleged attack, Monero’s hashrate was 6.25 GH/s, while Qubic reported a maximum rate of 2.6 GH/s. This is significantly less than 51%.

RIAT noted that the actual computational power of Monero is likely even higher. Solo miners and botnets are not accounted for in pool statistics, so the data may contain inaccuracies.

Researchers emphasized that Qubic could have substantiated their claims by publishing a view key. This would have provided verifiable on-chain evidence of their mining activity.

What Really Happened

According to researchers, Qubic managed to find 51% of the last 100 blocks at a certain point. However, this does not mean control over 51% of the network’s hashrate, but rather indicates a momentary stroke of luck.

As a result, Qubic conducted a reorganization of six blocks. However, most Monero exchanges and wallets require 10 confirmations for transaction crediting. Therefore, such a reorganization is insufficient to reverse a fully confirmed transaction.

RIAT reported that Qubic employed a “selfish mining” strategy. This allows the artificial inflation of visible hashrate by withholding found blocks and subsequently publishing them. Even with this tactic, they failed to achieve a significant result.

Possible Motives and Exchange Reactions

Researchers believe that Qubic’s campaign might have been aimed at artificially lowering Monero’s price. This would allow exchanges to replenish their reserves at a more favorable rate, as historically they do not always hold full XMR reserves.

Token withdrawal has been suspended on most centralized platforms, except for Kraken, RIAT noted. Exchange representatives clarified that the temporary suspension of deposits was a precautionary measure in response to public statements and did not indicate an actual attack.

RIAT concluded that the situation underscores the importance of a critical approach to data analysis and decentralized mining to ensure network security.

Back in July, Qubic, led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, announced plans to capture 51% of Monero’s hashrate from August 2 to 31.

In August, the project community chose Dogecoin for the next 51% attack.