Trader explains the level at which the Bitcoin rally will end.

A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.

Bitcoin has repeatedly shown a flawless execution of manipulation schemes. We now outline the most likely deception patterns that could mislead.

1. The first misconception is going long Bitcoin too early. This error is primarily linked to the habit of viewing the market solely through the seller’s lens. The main skill of a trader is to catch the change in trend in time and join it. According to VSA analysis, the weak seller reaction from $10,500 and the subsequent JOC indicate buyers’ interest in forming a trend.

2. The next threshold, potentially misleading, will be the $14,000 zone, from which a significant pullback will begin. This move could be interpreted by many market participants as a change in trend. Naturally, this level is corrective, but not a reversal. I draw this conclusion using Price Action analysis, comparing the size of the consolidation and the volume traded within it to the level mentioned above.

3. The third point is very similar to the first — paranoia and a widespread search for deception by a big whale will persuade most that a breakout of $14,000 is a fiction.

Analysis of Horizontal Volume Profiles

Globally we have moved out of all value zones. The rally’s continuation remains unimpeded.

Even at the $14,000 extreme, despite elevated vertical volumes, there are no significant cluster densities capable of providing hard resistance. At the moment, there are no signs of hard-fixation elements or abnormal volumes moving counter to the trend, which speaks to the continuation of the long uptrend.

Local Perspective

Locally, the bias is entirely long. In the trend base, many BUNov (bars of the level of wrongness) are forming, which indicates weakness in selling at the moment.

The emergence of supporting bars and volume levels per the VSA method on the 4-hour and hourly timeframes signals the arrival of a large buyer absorbing the seller. The selling-pressure angle under Price Action is weak, which is why long scenarios are prioritized.

Analysis of Horizontal Volume Profiles

At the moment we are in a balanced environment with clear boundaries. However, larger volumes are pushing from below. This indicates strong buying pressure.

Analyzing the sideways histogram, one can detect a POC shift toward the lower part of the range, which favors longs.

Delta and Open Interest Analysis

The current balance is driven by a sharp fixation of long positions. This is tied to both the rally and month-end, when most large traders lock in positions.

Speculators’ activity has risen, and the decreasing cumulative delta in the sideways accumulation signals increasing positions via limit orders, which large players like to use. A breakout beyond $10,800 is highly unlikely.

Conclusions

Summing up, the rally is far from over. One of the most likely scenarios is a break of the important zone around $11,300. A less likely scenario is a pullback to the $10,800–$10,880 zone.

A breach of the long scenario would be a drop below $10,750 and a close below this level.

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