Trader says Bitcoin price could fall to around $10,400

The market outlook is provided by a practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov.

\n\n

Bar Analysis

\n

The bar of the past week closed in buying. The spread and volume were fairly small, indicating a local easing in the bulls’ momentum.

\n

Progress within the wave has clearly weakened, signaling a correction with potential targets around $10,400. I expect the week to close lower.

\n

\n

Price Action and VSA

\n

It is worth separating the short-term and mid-term perspectives. If we talk about the short term, yesterday’s impulse looks unnatural due to the appearance of anomalous volume, which could be a trigger for stop orders. Perhaps we are dealing with a UT liquidity-sweep pattern. I doubt that Bitcoin can firmly hold above $12,300 with such dynamics. In the coming days there is a risk of a sell-off.

\n

In the medium term, it becomes clear that large capital is accumulating a long position within the current range ($12,128–$10,500), so within two weeks we may see a true breakout above $12,000. Based on daily-bar analysis, the leading cryptocurrency looks strongly long, but without a correction to new local highs, it is hard to believe.

\n

\n

Horizontal Volume Analysis

\n

Looking at the daily chart, at first glance everything looks fine — an exit from balance and a correction with continued growth. However, delta signals seller dominance. Even on a breakout with a new local high, the edge was only 1.2%, which is extremely weak for any JOC.

\n

\n

On smaller timeframes one can observe a huge spike in liquidity in the counter-trend, which is a fixation pattern and signals the end of the up move for the moment. A massive delta spike and loss of buying control indicate a manipulative character to the whole move.

\n

\n

Delta Analysis and High-Frequency Activity

\n

Locally, more signals emerge that build a short picture. One of them is the absence of bid-side protection in the $12,240–$12,300 zone, and significant selling activity.

\n

\n

The cherry on top is anomalous activity from HFT algorithms, which in 90% of cases is a harbinger of a reversal. Given the volatility they have created, one can expect a substantial move down, potentially to $11,000.

\n

\n

Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: ForkLog Feed — all the news, ForkLog — the most important news and polls.