Trader outlines next moves for Bitcoin’s price

A trader, Ilya Meshcheryakov explains the current market situation.

Thanks to Elon Musk and a large amount of open interest (OI) in shorts, the leading cryptocurrency surprised market participants.

In just a few hours Bitcoin punched a triangle breakout to the upside and reached around $38,500 (about 20% gain). However, the momentum was short-lived, and the price quickly retreated back to the level where the move started.

Elon Musk posted the Bitcoin hashtag on Twitter. The cryptocurrency rose to $38,000

The character of the move and its speed do not allow conclusions about the genuineness of the upside triangle breakout, so setting targets above the current ATH does not seem prudent. The rise was purely speculative and occurred mainly due to a large number of private purchases, as well as the triggering of stop orders and short liquidations.

Market participants are shifting attention to altcoins, and Bitcoin’s dominance index has returned to a downtrend. More often this will push the leading cryptocurrency into a prolonged flat with periodic sharp moves in either direction as open interest grows in long or short positions.

The anticipated zone for Bitcoin’s future consolidation (blue) and the support zone (green). The hourly BTC/USDT chart on the Binance exchange from TradingView.

The lower bound of the global consolidation zone is currently around $29,500; buying could be considered from that level with modest risk controls. There is no upper bound per se. Given the pattern of lower highs, the next high could form near $37,500, or it may retest the previous resistance zone at $38,700–$40,000.

On a short time frame, zones with substantial accumulation of stop orders can be identified. They are presumably located above $35,000 in the range $35,300–$35,800.

If price reaches these levels and begins to fall, a short could be considered with targets at support levels of $33,800, $32,200 and $31,100. The risk limit in this case is placed beyond the last fractal.

Zone of accumulation of sellers’ stop orders (in red), as well as Bitcoin’s support and resistance levels. Fifteen-minute chart of BTC/USDT on the Binance exchange from TradingView.

At the moment, market interest is focused on altcoins, while Bitcoin continues to move in a range, periodically delivering speculative impulses.

Trading ideas are mainly formed on short timeframes and imply small risk limits. A turning point for the leading cryptocurrency could be a breakout of the zone around $29,500 — then targets would be around $24,000.

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