How Argentina’s new president could affect the crypto market, experts explain

On November 20 in Argentina the presidential elections concluded, resulting in libertarian, Bitcoin advocate and critic of central banks Javier Milei becoming head of state. We examine the new leader’s views and share experts’ opinions on his potential impact on the crypto industry.

Who is Javier Milei?

Mr. Milei’s political career began relatively recently — in 2020. Founding the party ‘Freedom Advances,’ the economist, businessman and television pundit stated his intention to ‘blow up’ the system and spoke out against ‘thieves in the political elite.’

Due to his flamboyant image and provocative behaviour, he is often compared to former US President Donald Trump. One of the favourite props at rallies is a chainsaw, symbolising the downsizing of the state apparatus.

Milei has repeatedly spoken of the need to abolish the central bank, arguing it is the main cause of Argentina’s economic crisis.

As of October, the inflation rate in the country rose to 142%. The state has been living through a perpetual economic crisis, declaring sovereign debt defaults and facing persistent devaluation of the national currency.

Milei’s challenger was Economy Minister Sergio Massa. The final vote tally stood at 56% to 44%.

In the biographical book about Milei, ‘El Loco’ (‘The Madman’) by Juan Gonzalez, it is said that during the presidential race he stirred up ‘frenzy’ and a ‘sense of risky adventure’.

“He is an unstable leader of an unstable country,” wrote Gonzalez.

Milei, after his victory, proclaimed the ‘beginning of the end of Argentina’s decline’. Inauguration is set for 10 December.

Bitcoin or the dollar?

In 2022, in an interview with the newspaper Clarín, Milei was asked about Bitcoin’s potential as an alternative to the current financial system. He replied that ‘Bitcoin represents money returning to its original creator—the private sector.’

“First, we must understand that the central bank is a fraud. It is a mechanism by which policymakers cheat good people through the inflation tax. […] Bitcoin is a natural reaction to scammers and an attempt to make money private again,” he added.

However, unlike El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Milei does not support introducing digital gold as legal tender. Instead, he proposes abandoning the Argentine peso (ARS) in favour of the US dollar.

According to Grayscale Research, the newly elected president could pave the way for ‘broader adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into Argentina’s economy, addressing longstanding inflation and financial instability.’

Analysts noted that Milei views Bitcoin as a key instrument in fighting the inefficiency and corruption of centralized financial systems, and some of his closest allies see it as ‘a viable alternative to traditional economic structures.’

Milei’s victory in the election brought Bitcoin in the peso pair to a record high. On the day of the election, BTC/ARS quotes jumped by more than 2.5%, to 13.2 million pesos.

CoinShares’ Max Shannon told The Block that digital gold could eventually replace the peso if the fiat currency collapses due to reforms or hyperinflation.

“Milei advocates dollarization and Bitcoin. Dollarization occurs when a significant portion of the economy operates in a foreign currency, officially or unofficially. This brings much-needed price stability and restores trust in economic transactions and asset valuations,” he explained.

Ruslan Lienha, head of markets at YouHodler, saw the election of Argentina’s president as a positive factor for Bitcoin’s price in the long term. In his view, over time the use of digital assets in the country will become much broader if Milei endures the current serious economic challenges and does not lose ground.

The campaign platform of the candidate still included a clause proposing currency competition that would allow citizens to freely choose a monetary system.

@JMilei‘s agenda, as per the National Electoral document, under Economic Reform, item 12: Competition of currencies that allows citizens to choose the monetary system freely or the dollarization of the economy. pic.twitter.com/n8b0sfOFlZ

— Root ? (@therationalroot) November 20, 2023

“My interpretation is that he will allow citizens to choose a monetary system (for example, Bitcoin) or prefer dollarization. This aligns with his libertarian principles,” noted TheRationalRoot analyst.

Influential players in the crypto industry also reacted to the election of the Argentine leader. Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes predicted “the beginning of change” if Milei keeps his word and abolishes the central bank.

It’s time to try something different. Change is coming, and with it volatility. Let’s see if he stays true to his word and abolishes the central bank. pic.twitter.com/KieOIRu3Dy

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 19, 2023

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor also congratulated the politician on his victory, saying that Bitcoin is ‘hope for Argentina.’

#Bitcoin is hope for Argentina. Congratulations @JMilei.

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) November 20, 2023

In 2022 Milei was sued for promoting a purported cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme.

In 2023, the Central Bank of Argentina proposed new guidelines that could complicate the operations of companies involved with digital assets.