Analyst Warns of Bitcoin Market Entering Late Cycle Phase

Bitcoin and S&P 500 are in a late bull phase, says analyst Axel Adler Jr.

The leading cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 index are in the “late stage of a bull phase,” according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

BTC and S&P 500 remain in the late bull phase: S&P 500 52-Week Return = +13%, the market is still in risk-on mode. BTC–S&P correlation = 0.26 — the relationship is moderately positive: bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as equities, but is not entirely dependent on them.… pic.twitter.com/E5JP7aTJZw

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) October 23, 2025

According to his data, the market remains in a risk-on mode, with the S&P 500’s annual return at +13%.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 stands at 0.26, indicating a weak but positive relationship: the leading cryptocurrency often follows the stock market’s trends but is not entirely dependent on it.

The analyst emphasized that the S&P 500 is sensitive to macroeconomic and political news, so its cooling could quickly impact the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the focus will shift to corporate earnings, the expert believes. After two years of growth, the market will assess actual results.

The third-quarter earnings season is currently underway. Of the 58 firms that have reported, all exceeded forecasts. Expected profit growth has increased from 7% to 8%. Adler Jr. noted that this pattern is typical for the final stage of a bull phase.

Bitcoin Inflows to Binance

Over the past 30 days, major holders of the leading cryptocurrency have transferred assets worth $5.56 billion to the Binance exchange. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn.

Whale Flow to Binance Hits $5.56B Over the Last 30 Days

“The total inflow for the day reached $1.07B. During this period, Bitcoin’s price surged from $108K to $113K before retracing back to $108K, likely influenced by these substantial transfers.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/SbwkuDaJCF

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 23, 2025

The expert tracked the indicator that accounts for transactions exceeding 1000 BTC. The indicator points to an inflow of assets from whales, which could influence the price of digital gold.

A sharp increase in the indicator occurred on October 21, when Bitcoin worth $1.07 billion was transferred to the exchange. The analyst highlighted several large transactions:

• 04:00 — $43.74 million;
• 08:00 — $21.63 million and $162.24 million;
• 10:00 — $143.77 million and $323.43 million;
• 17:00 — $39.45 million;
• 18:00 — $336.95 million.

Amid these transfers, Bitcoin’s price rose from $108,000 to $113,000, before correcting back to $108,000.

Short-term Investors’ “Pain”

Analysts at Glassnode reported a decline in speculative activity in the market. According to their data, recent cryptocurrency buyers are experiencing “financial stress,” a sign of market cooling.

Experts refer to the metric of unrealized profits and losses of short-term holders. Its current values reflect increasing pressure on this group of investors.

Glassnode emphasized that historically, periods of “pain” for speculators coincided with the formation of healthier market conditions. Reducing excessive speculation could lead to price stabilization, specialists concluded.

Contributors from CryptoQuant at ShayanMarkets reported that the MVRV ratio on the leading cryptocurrency’s chart has fallen below the 365-day simple moving average, marking a local low.