MIT Study Suggests AI Could Replace 11.7% of US Workforce

AI could replace 11.7% of US jobs, equating to $1.2 trillion in salaries.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to replace 11.7% of the US workforce, equivalent to $1.2 trillion in annual salaries, according to a CNBC report citing research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

The analysis was conducted using a labor market modeling tool called the Iceberg Index, developed by MIT experts in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The index models the employment of 151 million American workers nationwide and the impact of artificial intelligence on them. The tool helps to understand the changes expected in the labor market.

For legislators planning major investments in retraining and education, the index offers a state-by-state map of changes.

“We are creating a digital twin of the US labor market,” noted ORNL director and study co-leader Prasanna Balaprakash.

The Iceberg Index shows how neural networks alter tasks, skills, roles, and workforce flows long before these changes manifest in the real economy.

The model considers 151 million workers as individual agents with their own skills, tasks, professions, and workplaces.

The mentioned $1.2 trillion corresponds to the total salaries of people whose work involves routine functions in HR, logistics, finance, and office administration. It also accounts for role changes in information technology and computing.

Researchers emphasized that the index is not intended to predict future layoffs. It describes what AI systems are already capable of doing and provides policymakers with a structured tool to explore hypothetical scenarios before making key decisions and laws.

Collaboration with Authorities

For modeling, experts used labor resource data provided by the authorities of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah.

Tennessee’s official action plan for workforce development in AI mentions the Iceberg Index. Utah authorities plan to present a similar document soon.

North Carolina State Senator DeAndrea Salvador noted that she was attracted to the study’s method of identifying effects overlooked by traditional tools. According to her, one of the most useful features is the ability to detail results down to the local level.

“You can determine that certain skills exist in a particular county and then match them with the potential for automation or expansion,” she noted.

Practical Benefits

The Iceberg Index team created an interactive modeling environment that allows states to experiment with various policy levers—from reallocating labor funds to adjusting training programs.

“The project enables policymakers and business leaders to identify problem areas, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test impact methods before investing billions in their implementation,” the report states.

Balaprakash emphasized that many key sectors in Tennessee—healthcare, nuclear energy, manufacturing, and transportation—still largely depend on physical labor. The question is how to apply new technologies like robotics and AI assistants to strengthen industries rather than “empty” them.

Americans are deeply concerned about advancements in artificial intelligence and its implications for unemployment.

In August 2024, British trade unions warned of the risk of millions of job losses due to artificial intelligence.