Analysts weigh the odds of a ‘Santa Claus rally’

Bitcoin rebounds to ~$90,000 as traders debate the odds of a Santa Claus rally.

Bitcoin has recovered to about $90,000 after a local low at $84,400. The 6.5% bounce has reignited talk of a traditional pre-holiday “Santa Claus rally”.

The analyst known as AlphaBTC expects the uptrend to continue.

#Bitcoin LTF plan

Still no change, looking for that Santa rally 🎅

Give us an early XMas present 🎁 & send it to 98-100K pls 🙏 $BTC#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/9Dwck8UBjN pic.twitter.com/NuCfUjxxrL

— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) December 22, 2025

He sees the year’s opening price at $93,300 as the first target, with the next resistance at $98,000–100,000.

The trader known as Captain Faibik pointed to a developing bullish “megaphone” pattern. Since 22 November the asset has been consolidating in a wide $82,000–95,000 range.

$BTC #Bitcoin longer the consolidation, Stronger & bigger the Rally that follows.. 🤫 pic.twitter.com/GV7Ht9WtUN

— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) December 22, 2025

“The longer the consolidation, the stronger and bigger the rally that follows,” he said.

The measured target from the pattern is $120,000, implying a 34% rise from current levels.

Not everyone shares the optimism. The analyst Ardi pointed to historical data: from 24 December to 2 January bitcoin’s returns have often fallen.

$BTC / Bitcoin

“The Santa Rally is coming!”

If you’re tracking the “Santa Rally” window (the final five trading days of December plus the first two of January), the data over the last five years paints a very clear picture of why traders gets trapped with this narrative.… https://t.co/EFMEwoiHC7 pic.twitter.com/cMT0p3XYjx

— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) December 19, 2025

Only 2020 (+34.5%) was an exception. The current market structure resembles 2021, when the cryptocurrency lost 7.9% over the holidays amid selling by large holders.

On-chain metrics suggest buyers have the upper hand. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted supportive conditions in the derivatives market.

BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated. Short liquidations are reinforcing the asymmetry in favor of buyers.

☕️Morning Brief #66 👇https://t.co/6eeXRpMclx pic.twitter.com/qK4wrHOygy

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) December 22, 2025

The Regime Score indicator is in bullish but not overheated territory. Dominance of short liquidations is providing fuel for price gains.

Key support remains $84,000. The trader known as DaanCrypto called this level critical to defend the uptrend.

$BTC Still sitting at support of the .382 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire cycle.

This remains a key area to defend for the bulls on the high timeframe. pic.twitter.com/sGYGQ0353R

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) December 22, 2025

Glassnode analysts recorded rising derivatives activity as the price of the leading cryptocurrency moved back above $90,000.

With price back above $90K, perpetual open interest has risen from 304K to 310K BTC (~2% increase), while the funding rate has heated up from 0.04% to 0.09%.

This combination signals a renewed buildup in leveraged long positioning, as perpetual traders position for a potential… pic.twitter.com/uQNqo3O9U0

— glassnode (@glassnode) December 22, 2025

Open interest in perpetual futures increased from 304,000 to 310,000 BTC (about 2%). In parallel, funding rates rose from 0.04% to 0.09%.

Analysts interpret this combination as a renewed build-up of leveraged long positions. Market participants are positioning for a potential year-end rally.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts warned of a shift to a bear market.