Benchmark: Quantum Threat to Bitcoin Overstated

Benchmark analysts see the quantum threat to Bitcoin as long-term and manageable.

Benchmark analysts have described the quantum threat to the leading cryptocurrency as “long-term” and “manageable.” In a new report, experts urged against succumbing to panic, reports The Block.

Researcher Mark Palmer acknowledged the theoretical vulnerability of Bitcoin’s cryptography but emphasized that real attacks are “decades, not years” away. Developers have ample time to adapt the protocol.

A powerful quantum computer could theoretically compute a “private key” from public data. However, Palmer clarified that the threat only concerns coins at addresses with already revealed public keys.

Risk Assessment

According to Benchmark’s calculations, between 1 and 2 million BTC are vulnerable. This pertains to funds in reused addresses or “Satoshi-era” wallets.

Alternative estimates differ: K33 researcher Vetle Lunde pointed to 6.8 million BTC at risk. However, he noted the uncertainty of timelines and called for developer coordination rather than panic selling.

Experts’ forecasts on when a real threat might emerge vary:

• Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya stated in November that risks would become relevant in the next 2-5 years;
• Cryptographer Adam Back disagreed with the pessimistic scenario, pushing the horizon to 20-40 years.

Benchmark also dismissed the notion of Bitcoin’s architecture being inflexible. Analysts recalled successful softforks like Taproot and predicted a smooth transition of the network to quantum resistance.

Industry Preparation

Major players have already begun preparing for the post-quantum era:

• The Ethereum Foundation formed a security group and allocated a $1 million research grant;
• Coinbase established an advisory board to assess risks and develop protection strategies.

Investors also remain cautious: previously, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood excluded Bitcoin from a model portfolio, citing quantum technologies as an existential threat to the network.

Earlier, leading _Checkonchain analyst James Check stated that the primary reason for the weakness of the leading cryptocurrency is large-scale sales by long-term holders, not concerns about the asset’s long-term prospects.