K33 Predicts a 30% Reduction in U.S. Bitcoin Reserves

This will occur after the resolution of proceedings related to the Bitfinex hack.

The positive trend of the LEO token indicates an impending conclusion to the legal proceedings related to the Bitfinex exchange hack. Consequently, the U.S. bitcoin reserve might lose about 30% of its volume, stated K33 Research’s lead analyst, Vetle Lunde. 

According to the expert, the asset’s growth suggests interaction with the frozen bitcoins of the trading platform. 

This involves 94,643 BTC, seized from the wallet of hacker Ilya Lichtenstein. In November 2024, a U.S. court sentenced the hacker to five years in prison for laundering funds stolen from the exchange. His wife, Heather Morgan, received 18 months in prison for assisting in the criminal operations. Both admitted guilt and agreed to return the stolen assets. 

In January 2025, U.S. prosecutors requested the court to allow the return of nearly 80% of the 119,754 BTC to the exchange.

“Previously, Bitfinex announced that upon receiving the coins, it intends to allocate 80% of the returned funds to buy and burn LEO over 18 months,” noted Lunde. 

He added that LEO’s value is driven by two main factors: ongoing buybacks funded by Bitfinex’s trading revenues and the anticipated future burning.

According to the analyst’s calculations, the fair value of the exchange’s token should be approximately $5 billion (with bitcoin priced at $65,000). However, the current figure stands at around $8 billion—60% above the target value. 

Will Reserves Be Surrendered?

Currently, the 94,643 BTC belonging to Bitfinex account for about 30% of the United States’ strategic bitcoin reserve, Lunde pointed out. The total holdings of the U.S. authorities amount to 328,372 BTC. 

The analyst clarified that the crypto reserves law includes a provision for returning assets to identifiable victims. 

Bitfinex’s coins fall under this category, according to Lunde. In October 2024, the exchange was recognized as the sole victim in the incident.

“Under U.S. asset forfeiture law, third parties must be given the opportunity to assert their ownership rights before funds are distributed. This has led to additional litigation, where former Bitfinex users and the corporate structure itself dispute the ownership of the coins,” the expert added. 

Some claimants assert that they are direct victims and should receive the bitcoins individually. According to Bitfinex, many of these claims relate to balance deductions following the hack, rather than specific ownership of the stolen coins. Until this issue is resolved, the coins remain frozen.

In December, Lichtenstein released a video message from prison, asserting that he planned and executed the Bitfinex hack alone.