Analysts split over bitcoin’s next move

Some see a bear turn; others, room to rally.

The price of digital gold will slump to $35,000–$44,000 in 2026, says the analyst known as Crypto Patel, who argues the crypto market has entered a bear phase.

UNPOPULAR OPINION: Bitcoin is Heading to $44K-$35K in 2026.

Here’s Why I’m NOT Bullish Right Now 👇
Bitcoin broke down below the $107K HTF trendline support, that was the line in the sand.

We’ve officially entered bearish territory.
The market NEEDS a healthy correction before… pic.twitter.com/eXMEZyRwOD

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 25, 2026

The trend shift, he says, followed a break of the long-term support at $107,000. He called this level a critical boundary for the asset.

Patel calculated his downside targets using Fibonacci:

• the 0.5 level sits near $44,000;
• 0.618 aligns with $35,000.

In his view, large capital accumulates at these levels. A deep correction is necessary for bitcoin to resume healthy growth and reach new all-time highs. 

He cited previous market cycles: before each major rally the first cryptocurrency suffered a steep drawdown. In 2018 bitcoin fell 84%, and in 2022 it dropped 77%. Patel is sure the price will slip below $50,000 before the next leg higher.

A climb to $80,000

On February 25 bitcoin’s price reached $70,000. The main driver was heavy inflows into spot ETF.
At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $68,203. That is slightly above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near ~$68,330.

Analyst Rekt Capital deems this zone key. In his view, the asset needs to close the week above the EMA and turn the line into support; otherwise the current bounce will be a routine retest before a decline.

#BTC

Bitcoin has indeed Weekly Closed below the 200-week EMA (black)

And now Bitcoin is enjoying a recovery which could turn into a post-breakdown retest of the EMA into new resistance (red circles), if history is any indication

The 200-week EMA (black) represents the price… https://t.co/1cOGC5MUyd pic.twitter.com/YTSAA7GxF0

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) February 25, 2026

The trader known as Jelle added that on the four-hour chart bitcoin must also hold the 50 EMA (around $68,000).

The first real strength on $BTC since prices were over $90k.

Let’s see if price can turn the 4h 50ema into support here.

Stick to the plan. pic.twitter.com/fkzclQHxND

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) February 25, 2026

If buyers reclaim the 20-day moving average ($69,220), the price could head towards $74,508.

Liquidity and the path to $80,000

CoinGlass recorded a large cluster of sell orders between $72,450 and $75,000. The total volume of shorts there is about $2bn.

A break of $75,000 would trigger a cascade of liquidations. That would force sellers to close positions in a hurry and could propel prices towards $80,000.

Analysts at AlphaBTC expect those levels to be reached in the coming weeks, noting that targeted liquidity collection by larger players has only just begun.

#Bitcoin liquidity hunt 🎯

It has only just started! Unless there is a catalyst to drop (i.e. Trump and Iran…), i am expecting these higher levels to get run in the next few weeks.#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/yKPB1p1BZa pic.twitter.com/hZbMe055jP

— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) February 26, 2026

The rise is underpinned by institutional demand. According to Farside Investors, US spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded capital inflows for two consecutive days.

On February 24 the funds took in $764m, and on February 25 the products attracted $506.6m — the largest daily figure since February 2.

Average loss of short-term bitcoin investors

The analyst known as Darkfost described the current market with the phrase: “A falling tree makes more noise than a growing forest.” In so doing, he stressed that against a broadly positive trend, local setbacks and the panic of short-term investors draw most of the attention.

“A falling tree makes more noise than a growing forest.”

I’m starting this post with a bit of philosophy because the past few weeks have been dominated by noise.

👉 In times like these, taking a step back and looking at how far we’ve come is a useful exercise.

When you zoom… pic.twitter.com/Cf3k8D81xN

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 26, 2026

After months of correction, recent buyers are carrying heavy losses. By his calculations, the average purchase price (realised price) for traders holding coins for one to three months formed at $90,000. Since bitcoin is now trading around $68,000, the unrealised loss for this cohort reaches 24%.

For short-term investors, Darkfost highlighted key deviation bands from the realised price. The maximum band is at $153,000, the upper at $126,000, the lower at $79,000 and the minimum at $56,000. These are important areas of interest for short-term players, who tend to react most emotionally to sharp moves.

He noted that in the current cycle bitcoin has often corrected right after hitting the maximum band. It will take some more time before recent investors return to a comfortable profit zone, he concluded. 

On February 24, the analyst known as On-Chain Mind predicted a drop in bitcoin to $35,000 following a Nasdaq sell-off.