Eric Wall, the IT director of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Arcane Assets, is prepared to stake $1 million that the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin’s price will not work.
Not uncertain? I bet $1,000,000 that the S2FX model will be broken less than 5 years from now.
This is not a joke. I’m willing to lock up the money for it with a 3rd party we both trust, and you must too.
I define “broken” = “it won’t have reached even 50% of its target range”. https://t.co/vmDO5UkQoO
— Eric Wall (@ercwl) November 11, 2020
In Wall’s view, the model will ‘break’ by 2025. This means it won’t reach its target range even at 50%, he clarified.
“This is not a joke. I’m prepared to hand over the money to a third party we both trust, and you should do so as well,” Wall stated as the terms of the bet.
His proposal came in response to PlanB’s recent statement, the creator of the S2F for Bitcoin and a popular crypto blogger, who confirmed his confidence in the model’s accuracy.
“People ask whether I believe in my model. For clarity: I have no doubt that S2F is accurate and that Bitcoin will reach $100,000–$288,000 by December 2021,” PlanB wrote.
“I can’t discuss Eric’s logic, but the reason I’m willing to offer this bet, even without considering the accuracy of S2F, lies in a simple arbitrage. Buy Bitcoin, short S2F at 3:1 — you can’t lose,” Ari Paul stated.
In a subsequent tweet, he indicated that he had made the bet in jest.
Earlier, analysts at the Strix Leviathan hedge fund analysed in detail why S2F is not suitable for forecasting Bitcoin’s price.
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