For the first time, the share of “new” whales in the realized capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency has surpassed that of long-term holders, according to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno.
Bitcoin’s Control Has Changed Hands
“Market direction is now dictated by new whales. They hold the most realized capital, exhibit the highest turnover, and are the most emotionally and financially exposed to price volatility.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/2NEikAUL4b
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 21, 2026
Changes in the Realized Cap metric indicate a shift in key players. Control of the market has moved from seasoned investors to capital that entered the asset in the later stages of the cycle.
“New” whales are defined as short-term holders with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. A shift in this metric towards them suggests that a significant portion of the supply has changed hands at high prices.
The average purchase price for this group is around $98,000. With spot prices lower, “new” whales are facing cumulative unrealized losses of $6 billion.
According to CryptoQuant, newcomers are the main source of selling pressure after price peaks. During downturns, investors sold coins, using short-term rebounds to close positions. This strategy indicates a priority on risk management over belief in long-term growth.
Conversely, “old” whales, with an average entry price of about $40,000, remain significantly profitable. They are not under pressure and do not significantly influence short-term dynamics.
Moreno emphasized that market direction is now dictated by new participants due to their sensitivity to volatility. Until the market absorbs their loss-making supply or a capitulation occurs, digital gold will remain in a distribution phase rather than accumulation.
Bitcoin Under Pressure
Markets have shifted to “defensive mode” due to economic upheavals in Japan and political tensions, according to QCP Capital analysts.
Instead of acting as a hedge, the leading cryptocurrency behaves like a risk asset, sensitive to interest rates and macroeconomics.
The focus is on the rise in yields of 10-year Japanese bonds to 2.29%, the highest level since 1999 after decades of near-zero rates. The situation exposes Tokyo’s fiscal issues:
- national debt has exceeded 240% of GDP;
- total debt has reached ¥1342 trillion;
- by 2026, debt servicing could consume a quarter of budget expenditures.
The sustainability of Japan’s finances is in question, provoking volatility in global government debt markets.
US-EU Trade Conflict
Market pressure is intensified by escalating tensions between Washington and Brussels. President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on eight countries opposing Greenland’s transition to US control. The restrictions will take effect on February 1, with rates rising to 25% by June 1.
The European Parliament is already considering freezing the July trade deal with the US, threatening trade worth up to $700 billion. Investors are assessing risks: it remains unclear whether the White House is using tariffs as leverage or if this marks the start of a prolonged standoff.
Bitcoin’s Situation
The retreat from risk has halted the growth of the leading cryptocurrency. The coin correlates with the US stock market, which has fallen by more than 2%.
According to QCP, until clear political signals emerge, the market will remain in “response mode.” Investors are currently focused on capital preservation and are watching to see if current issues escalate into a systemic crisis.
On January 20, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $88,000 amid a stock market crash.