Futures reports are a useful tool for traders, helping to capture sentiment among major players and complement the view of the market. On the mood among Bitcoin whales, ForkLog spoke with analyst Дмитрий Перепелкин.
Bitcoin’s price is moving gently higher, having held above the $10,000 support level. The resistance at $11,000 remains a key level, and the market awaits a break above it.
During the trading period from September 8 to 15, in the Asset Manager section the number of long positions rose sharply (+461 contracts). In total: 717 long contracts versus 12 short positions.
The growth in long positions came exactly during the period after several failed attempts to break the $10,000 support, as Bitcoin began rising toward $11,000.
According to the report for 15-22 September, the market situation has changed significantly. Contracts opened during the previous reporting period (September 8-15) have closed. Most likely this is linked to Bitcoin’s inability to break the $11,000 price barrier.
BTC/USD chart from TradingView.
In the Asset Manager section there are still 12 short contracts. Traders are not rushing to open short positions, since globally Bitcoin is still in an uptrend; going against it is a risky endeavour.
One could suppose that if BTC does break the $10,000 support and holds around $9,200-$9,700 for 3-4 days, that would be a signal of a drop. Traders will start opening short positions en masse, thereby adding fuel to the decline.
Despite the $10,000 level holding, demand for margin positions on Bitfinex continues to shrink. The chart below shows the daily funding rate for margin traders.
For a growing market, funding tends to rise as demand for long positions increases with price. Now the picture looks precisely the opposite — since late July the rate has been falling. This indicates a declining demand for longs.
Let us put the facts together:
- dominance of long contracts in the Asset Managers section;
- almost zero figure of short positions in Asset Managers;
- Bitcoin’s rise from the key $10,000 support level, signaling a continuing uptrend.
We are watching the $10,000 and $11,000 levels, which will determine the market’s next direction.
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