Analysis of futures reports: whales have been massively closing their positions

Futures reports are a useful tool for traders, helping to gauge sentiment among large players and complement the view of the market. On the mood among Bitcoin whales, ForkLog spoke with analyst Dmitry Perepelkin.

The latest COT report covers the period from September 1 to September 8, 2020. During this period, Bitcoin’s price fell by 13%.

From August 25 to September 1, the Asset Managers section saw a substantial rise in long positions (+449 contracts). A significant gap emerged between long and short holders (745 long positions against 182 short positions).

Such a sizable cluster of long positions came during the period of a short-term Bitcoin rally from $11,200 to $12,000, a key resistance level.

However the break above $12,000 was not successful, which signaled a drop to the current levels around $10,300.

From September 1 to 8, the situation in the Asset Managers section changed sharply as the key support level of $11,000 was breached.

There was a substantial reduction in both short and long positions. Long positions opened at the end of August were completely closed in early September.

As of September 12, 2020, Bitcoin must break through the resistance level of $10,500. This would give market participants confidence in returning the price to the trading range of $11,000–$12,000.

In the chart below, we clearly see that the $10,000 support level has held for 10 days already. This is a bullish signal.

A 59% reduction in short positions on the Bitfinex exchange is also a bullish signal.

Chart BTC/USD on Bitfinex from TradingView.

The chart of the lending rate for Bitfinex’s margin positions shows a downward trend.

The dynamics of the funding rate for Bitfinex’s margin positions.

This indicates waning demand for long Bitcoin positions. A break of the downtrend would also be a bullish signal.

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