The first cryptocurrency will “inevitably” surpass gold as the primary store of value, according to analyst David Eng.
Why Bitcoin Will Surpass Gold
A conservative, first-principles proofA First-Principles Supply Analysis
This conclusion relies on neither narrative, ideology, nor the extrapolation of recent price action. It is derived entirely from supply mathematics and thermodynamic… pic.twitter.com/hJXmYaqwr2— David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba) December 24, 2025
“This conclusion relies on neither narrative, ideology, nor the extrapolation of recent price action, but is entirely derived from supply mathematics and thermodynamic constraints based on deliberately conservative assumptions,” he added.
According to the expert, a system with exponentially decreasing new supply will always mathematically outperform a system with linear emission growth, provided demand is not zero.
Gold has an elastic supply: rising prices make it economically viable to develop new deposits. This increases emission and dilutes value. The stock of the precious metal grows by about 1-2% annually.
Bitcoin “inverts the commodity economy.” Its supply is inelastic and fixed by protocol at 21 million coins. An increase in price or interest cannot increase the amount of cryptocurrency—it only leads to an increase in hashrate and network difficulty.
Thus, demand is accumulated as thermodynamic work done (energy costs for security), rather than diluted by emission.
Halving causes the energy cost of producing one bitcoin to grow exponentially. Gold has no similar mechanism.
Timeframe
To determine when bitcoin will surpass gold, Eng constructed a conservative mathematical model, deliberately underestimating the cryptocurrency’s growth rate:
- Initial conditions: gold’s capitalization is ~$30 trillion (including reserves, bars, jewelry), bitcoin’s is ~$1.8 trillion. The ratio is ~16.7x in favor of the precious metal;
- Hypotheses: gold grows by 2% annually, the market value of the first cryptocurrency doubles every four years (about 19% per annum, significantly below the historical average);
- Equation: Eng derived the equation 1.8 × 2^(t/4) = 30 × (1.02)^t. According to the solution, the leading digital asset will surpass gold in 18 years. This implies its capitalization at ~$30 trillion and a price of about $1.5 million per coin.
“Physics and mathematics determine the superior store of value. Narratives do not matter. Bitcoin does not compete with gold; it renders the monetary role of the precious metal obsolete through superior mechanics,” concluded the expert.
In 2025, the first cryptocurrency significantly lagged behind the leading precious metal. Since January, the flagship of the crypto market fell by 6.6%, while gold rose by more than 70%.
Earlier, analysts at XWIN Research Japan explained bitcoin’s weakness amid the rise of metals.