Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin ‘Stagnation’ Until 2027

Analyst sees no new bitcoin ATH in 2026; upside delayed until 2027.

Bitcoin is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2026, according to Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators.

https://t.co/YvATL8DbLv

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 7, 2026

He said bitcoin’s current price action hinges on the battle between buyers and sellers. He believes a return to $87,000 is only a matter of time.

For now, bulls are trying to defend $92,000, while whales are aiming for a deeper test of support near the yearly open — $87,000.

“Their goal is to wait for a ‘golden cross’ to form on the daily chart, which will signal the next stage of growth,” Alan noted.

This refers to the crossover of the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). A move of the shorter SMA above the longer one is traditionally interpreted as a resumption of upward momentum on short-term timeframes.

However, before this “inevitable” step, the market should revisit the yearly open to retest it.

The longer-term outlook also looks murky, he stressed. A confluence of bearish signals suggests the BTC/USD pair is unlikely to set new all-time highs before 2027.

Here’s the written analysis for $BTC and $ETH:

After an 11 month uptrend that began with the 2024 Election Day Trump Pump, and took Bitcoin to an ATH at $126k, $BTC bulls ran out of momentum and closed the year with a a red candle, down 6.5% from the ‘25 Yearly Open.

Ethereum…

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 5, 2026

“A lot can change in six months and invalidate this scenario, but at the moment it’s easier to build a logical model in which price declines after the current bullish impulse is exhausted,” Alan wrote.

Two key conditions are needed to confirm a reversal:

1. A weekly close of the RSI above 41.
2. Price must post weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, currently at $101,500.

At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $90,000. Over the past 24 hours, the price has fallen 2.3%.

Earlier, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju forecast a prolonged sideways trend. According to him, capital inflows into the first cryptocurrency have dried up, and liquidity has shifted into stocks and gold.

Three ‘checkpoints’

Some experts expect bitcoin to set new all-time highs in 2026. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that to reach an ATH the crypto market will need to clear three “checkpoints”.

He named the first and most important as the successful passage of the Clarity Act through the U.S. Congress. Its adoption would create legal clarity and provide a foundation for long-term industry growth, he believes.

The second condition is the full dissipation of the aftermath of the crash of 10–11 October 2025, when liquidations topped $19bn in a day. According to Hougan, the market failed to resume growth in the fourth quarter because of community fears about potential selling by large market makers.

“The spectre of those sales hung over the market like a thick fog. But there is good news: if it were going to happen, it most likely would have happened already. […] I believe that one factor that allowed the market to move higher at the start of this year was that investors left October 10 in the past,” he noted.

Hougan sees overall stability in the stock market as the third factor. While direct correlation is low, sharp swings on Wall Street — for example, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 — would weigh on cryptocurrencies.

“I do not claim any special expertise regarding the stock market. Some worry about an AI bubble, but prediction markets currently put the odds of a recession in 2026 as relatively low, and the probability of the S&P 500 rising at roughly 80%,” he concluded.

In late December, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted the start of a powerful crypto-market rally in 2026.