The key support for the price of the leading cryptocurrency is positioned at $97,877, where over 101,000 BTC have been transferred into wallets. Maintaining above this level is crucial for preserving the bullish momentum, according to analyst Ali Martinez.
The key support level for #Bitcoin is at $97,877, where more than 101,000 $BTC were accumulated. Holding above this level is crucial to sustaining the bullish momentum. pic.twitter.com/4kMR5ZtkWa
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 25, 2025
The next critical support is $91,700, a breach of which could lead to a drop to $74,000.
Martinez described the coming weeks as key for trend determination.
Pressure on prices was caused by miners selling 20,000 BTC (~$2 billion) in mid-January. Over the past week, hodlers have “unloaded” around 75,000 BTC (~$7.5 billion), the expert calculated.
Additionally, the number of active addresses has dropped to its lowest since November, and the inflow of “fresh” capital has plummeted by 63.3% since December 10—from $134.7 billion to $43.4 billion.
Bullish Arguments
According to the analyst, if $97,877 and $91,700 hold, the upward trend will continue. Targets are $182,000 according to the Mayer Multiplier and $276,400 according to the “cup and handle” model.
A potential peak could form between May and October, the specialist added.
He derived this timeframe based on Bitcoin’s behavior after halving in previous cycles:
- in 2013, the market peak was reached 367 days after the event;
- in 2017 and 2021, peaks formed 527 days later.
Since the last halving, 276 days have passed. In other words, the peak could be 90 to 250 days away.
In CryptoQuant, it was noted that leverage in Bitcoin derivatives has not reached the extreme levels observed during the 2021 bull run.
Hodlers Temper Appetite
In Glassnode, a slowdown in coin sales by long-term investors was noted. Since the New Year, the rate of change in the percentage ratio of hodlers to speculators on a monthly basis plummeted to -35% and has since returned to more balanced levels.
“During the recent rise above $100,000, 1.1 million BTC shifted from long-term holders to short-term ones. This represents an impressive influx of demand that absorbed supply at prices above $90,000,” the report states.
Experts calculated that Bitcoin balances on CEX have fallen from 3.1 million BTC to 2.74 million BTC over the past six months. The outflow from exchanges reduces the availability of coins for quick sales and is seen as a bullish indicator.
Analysts clarified that a significant portion of the flows might be linked to redistribution into ETF wallets managed by custodians like Coinbase.
In other words, these bitcoins have moved into exchange-traded funds—an alternative investment tool that is liquid or active and can be bought and sold as quickly as “real coins.”
Adjusting for this factor, the balances of the first cryptocurrency on platforms have decreased to 3 million BTC.
As reported in CoinDesk, the M2 money supply in the US rose to near-record $21.5 trillion in December 2024, which is an “optimistic signal for risky assets.”
Bitwise predicted “less severe” corrections in the digital gold’s price due to initiatives by US President Donald Trump.
Earlier, Bitcoin futures entered bearish territory for the first time since August 2023 due to news surrounding DeepSeek and uncertainty over the Fed meeting.