The analyst from Nanny Ventures, Maxim Lenets, explains the current market situation.
The weekly Bitcoin candle closed neutral. Buyers attempted to buy the dip, but the close matches the level of the previous week. We are still trading in a wide range, within which a local narrow channel has formed with bounds of $36 000-$32 500. From these levels, market makers have been successfully manipulating quotes.
There are fewer and fewer buyers willing to buy the dip. Technically, Bitcoin still needs to hold above the local resistance level of $36 000. Then there will be an opportunity to move toward the upper bound of the range.
On the daily chart, a lower-high (LH) structure is visible, and the price is increasingly approaching the lower boundary of the channel with smaller upward bounces — in recent days it has not even managed to reach the middle of the range.
In such a structure the probability of breaking the local low of $28 800 increases, which would trigger many stop-orders and liquidations of long positions (especially among margin traders).
This could lead to an impulsive drop to the $25 000-$20 000 marks in July–August. After that, the price would likely rebound sharply and resume an uptrend.
On the intraday timeframe, buyers yesterday and today attempted to push the price above $33 000 after a decline to $31 500, but selling pressure pushed the price below $32 000.
For now Bitcoin looks very weak, with no signs of a return to the middle of the range — $36 000.
If buyers fail to hold yesterday’s dip-buy zone of $31 800-$31 500, the next stop will be $31 000-$30 000.