Should historical trends hold true for the upcoming halving, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new ATH between April and October 2025, according to an analyst known as Ali.
As we approach the #BitcoinHalving in April 2024, here are four key points to consider:
1⃣Post-halving corrections: After the 2016 and 2020 halvings, #BTC experienced corrections of 30% and 7% within a month.
2⃣Significant post-halving rallies: Following the 2012, 2016, and 2020… pic.twitter.com/aaJpJcZtAm— Ali (@ali_charts) January 31, 2024
He also shared three other observations regarding the halving event:
- Following the 2016 and 2020 halvings, the price corrected by 30% and 7% within a month;
- In a broader context, rallies of 11,000%, 2850%, and 700% were observed after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 events, respectively;
- The duration of the bull market post-halving lasted 365, 518, and 549 days, respectively.
The analyst also highlighted the most significant coin accumulation period in nearly three years.
According to his observations, the Accumulation Trend Score has hovered near 1 over the past four months, which he interprets as a sign of strong confidence among major players.
#Bitcoin is witnessing one of its most significant accumulation streaks in almost 3 years!
Notably, the Accumulation Trend Score has hovered near 1 for the past 4 months, signaling that larger entities are accumulating $BTC. This trend indicates strong confidence in the market! pic.twitter.com/QcJOEhzBUb
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 1, 2024
Ali also pointed out the predictive strength of a buy signal that emerges when the MVRV falls below its 90-day average. The expert explained that current conditions are favorable.
Every time the #Bitcoin MVRV Ratio fell below its 90-day average in the past year, it signaled a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Currently, with the #BTC MVRV Ratio again below its 90-day average, it suggests that now might be an opportune moment to buy $BTC. pic.twitter.com/wTCu458u7n
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 31, 2024
Previously, Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles of the leading cryptocurrency and suggested the possibility of further price declines. He did not rule out a drop to $32,700.
Glassnode has proposed the “cost price” for short-term investors ($38,400) and the True Market Mean Price indicator developed with ARK Invest ($33,300) as potential support levels.