Analyst Predicts Potential Bitcoin Bear Market in October

However, he does not rule out a short-term rise of the asset to $140,000.

By early 2026, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could drop to $50,000, according to Joao Wedson, founder of the analytical platform Alphractal. However, he does not rule out a short-term rise of the asset to $140,000.

Judgment Day for Bitcoin Approaches?

Back in 2024, we pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. If true, this would signal the official closing of this phase in BTC’s history.

Of course, it would be reckless to assume that… https://t.co/3dtekdPCFN pic.twitter.com/ZtndPv0vCm

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) September 3, 2025

Bitcoin is trading 10.6% below its all-time high, reached on August 14 at $124,128. At the time of writing, its price stands at $110,675. 

According to Wedson, digital gold is approaching a moment that in the past coincided with the end of growth and the beginning of a prolonged decline. 

“Of course, it would be reckless to assume that Bitcoin has just over a month left in this cycle based solely on my chart. Yet, I can’t shake the thought — this might be just enough for BTC to drop to $100,000 before soaring above $140,000 in the same period. Who dares to challenge such a scenario?” the analyst wrote. 

He acknowledged that the current situation differs from past ones due to the influx of institutional investors and Bitcoin’s new status as a serious asset alongside stocks.

“The main question is whether this model will remain reliable amid active speculation around ETFs and growing demand from major players,” Wedson added. 

The key risk is that a downturn in the crypto market could coincide with a recession in the United States.

The expert questioned the relevance of the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle theory under new conditions, noting the growing debate about its persistence.

“Personally, I can’t wait to see if the new generation of crypto enthusiasts, who claim that the old patterns no longer work and Bitcoin will now grow indefinitely, are right, or if 2025 will be the last gasp before a sharp correction — with a possible price drop below $50,000 in the 2026 bear market,” he concluded.

Will Bitcoin Hold Above $100,000? 

Traders consider the $100,000 level a critical support point for Bitcoin. According to an analyst known as Killa, holding or breaking this mark will determine the future dynamics: setting new highs or deepening the correction. 

This 1 chart decides if $BTC breaks below $100K or breaks to new ATH. pic.twitter.com/eP0mb027p6

— Killa (@KillaXBT) September 4, 2025

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe expressed a similar view. 

Nothing really changed on $BTC, right?

Resistance remains resistance, couldn’t break through it, similarly for the 20-Week EMA.

If this isn’t breaking through, I would project we’re making a new low and that’s where you need to go max long #Altcoins.

Brace for impact. pic.twitter.com/blakTlNwwr

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 4, 2025

“Resistance remains resistance — it couldn’t be broken, similarly with the 20-week EMA. If a breakthrough doesn’t occur, I predict a new low, and that’s where you need to go all-in on altcoins,” he noted. 

Investor Ted Pillows expects the first cryptocurrency to show negative dynamics in September. According to him, a “powerful rally” will begin in the next quarter. 

“The final market peak will be reached in December 2025 or January 2026, just like in previous cycles,” the expert added. 

Earlier in September, Frank Fetter from Capital Management identified a rare signal of a Bitcoin price bottom.