A sustained break below $80,000 would sharply increase the risk of a prolonged decline for the leading cryptocurrency, says the analyst known as Crypto Dan.
BTC — Short-term holders have surrendered, but..
“In the short term, a rebound is highly likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much tougher period becomes significantly higher.” – By @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/VZ1M2MnvaO
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 24, 2025
He sees capitulation among short-term holders and a turn in sentiment from positive to negative. Current activity resembles the local lows of prior pullbacks within the present bull phase.
Relying on the SOPR metric, the analyst outlines two possible paths:
- If the market is in a corrective phase, price has bottomed.
- If a bear phase has begun, the end of the decline is still far off.
Crypto Dan advises weighing both probabilities. In the near term, he expects a rebound.
At the same time, he considers a 70% plunge from the all-time high—typical of past bear markets—unlikely.
Bitcoin’s drop is driven by a “real flight of capital”
The current slide in digital gold is being driven by outflows from crypto funds and the unwinding of treasury strategies, not merely by worsening sentiment, уверен Greg Chipolaro, head of research at NYDIG.
He stresses that the factors that propelled bitcoin in October are now working in reverse. Earlier, inflows into ETF and demand for digital assets from corporate treasuries (DAT) played a key role.
The picture changed in early October after large liquidations. ETF inflows turned to outflows, premiums on shares of bitcoin-holding companies fell, and the supply of stablecoins began to shrink. Chipolaro calls these “classic signs” of fading momentum and liquidity leaving the system.
Once that cycle breaks, the market follows a predictable script: liquidity tightens and erstwhile upbeat narratives stop translating into real money flows.
Bitcoin’s dominance rises
Spot ETFs built on digital gold, the standout success of this cycle, have turned into a drag. Global liquidity shifts and macro news also sway the asset.
During drawdowns, bitcoin’s dominance typically climbs. Speculative capital exits altcoins and retreats to the ecosystem’s most liquid and established asset. In early November the dominance gauge exceeded 60%; at the time of writing it had eased to 58.4%.
Premiums on DAT shares relative to NAV have narrowed across the market. At the same time, the supply of stablecoins has shrunk for the first time in months, pointing to direct investor withdrawals.
Despite the shift, the cohort of corporate bitcoin holders shows no signs of financial stress. Leverage remains moderate and interest obligations manageable. Many structures let issuers pause dividend payments if needed.
Chipolaro argues that bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact. Institutional adoption continues and the asset retains its status as a “neutral instrument.” In the short run, however, market dynamics are driven largely by capital flows and leverage.
He advises investors to allow for uneven, emotionally charged trading ahead, with sharp price swings.
A resumption of the bull trend
A decline in open interest (OI) in bitcoin derivatives may signal a price bottom and an imminent reversal, написал the analyst known as Darkfost.
According to him, the market has just seen the sharpest 30-day drop in OI of this cycle—roughly 1.3 million BTC. At the time of writing, the asset was trading around $85,900, according to CoinGecko.
Recent declines have triggered a cascade of liquidations. Traders are being forced to rethink strategies or double down, but the broader pattern points to stepping back from futures to reduce risk.
“Historically, such ‘clean-up’ phases have been necessary to form a durable bottom and prepare the ground for a new bull trend. Deleveraging, the forced closing of overly optimistic positions and the exit of speculators help balance the market,” Darkfost noted.
He added that the last time open interest contracted this quickly was during the 2022 bear market.
Over the past month, bitcoin has fallen 23%. The drawdown from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October exceeds 31.5%.
Analyst and MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe called the coming week decisive for digital gold. A return to the $90,000–96,000 range would significantly raise the odds of new record highs, he said.
Upcoming week is going to be decisive for #Bitcoin.
If this can rally back to $90-96K and it’s able to stay at those levels, then the chances of a revival towards a new ATH have significantly increased.
Fear and panic are max during the past days.
Those are the best…
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 23, 2025
“Fear and panic have peaked in recent days. Those are the best opportunities in the market,” the trader added.
In November, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that bitcoin was near a bottom, though a temporary dip to $70,000 was possible.