The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has not significantly impacted the US labour market, according to experts from Yale University’s Budget Lab. Their report concludes that fears of disruption are unfounded.
The report notes that since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, there have been no “significant disruptions.” Researchers argue that this is unsurprising, as structural changes in the labour market develop over decades, not months or years.
“Computers became a common office tool nearly a decade after entering the mass market, and it took even longer for them to alter workflows. Even if new AI technologies have as strong or even more dramatic an impact on the labour market, it is logical to expect that widespread effects will manifest later than 33 months,” the document states.
In 2021, the US saw active changes in the professional employment structure, with shifts in the types of jobs people performed and reductions in certain sectors. Subsequent changes have been less pronounced.
Experts highlighted that these shifts are “sluggish” compared to the 1940s and 1950s, when the labour market underwent significant upheaval due to World War II.
There is public concern that the development of generative artificial intelligence could automate some work processes and trigger mass layoffs.
The media, film production, and business services sectors, such as accounting, are most at risk. According to the report, changes in the professional structure of these industries began before the advent of the revolutionary chatbot.
“While anxiety about AI’s impact on the labour market is widespread today, our data shows that it is largely speculative. The overall picture reflects stability rather than large-scale economic upheaval,” the report states.
Experts noted that the implementation of artificial intelligence is in its early stages, and their analysis does not predict the future.
Previously, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that many current support staff working by phone or computer will lose their jobs due to AI. He believes that the displacement of some professions could lead to the emergence of new ones.