Analysts estimate the impact of blockchain deployment on GDP

Blockchain integration in the economy could lift global gross domestic product by $2.1 trillion (2%) by 2030. These estimates were provided by analysts Agile Dynamics.

Half of the effect is expected to accrue to developing economies. The technology, for them, will serve as a way to close gaps in the economic infrastructure of poorer countries, the experts explained.

According to the report, 75% of surveyed business leaders believe that lower operating costs will be one of the main benefits of blockchain.

69% of respondents cited increased speed and efficiency as an expected outcome. Other advantages include greater security and privacy (57%), and a boost to innovation (51%).

«Using blockchain […], organisations can gain greater control and autonomy over their infrastructure, reducing reliance on external vendors. The technology is an excellent and cost-effective means of stimulating innovation», — Pol Lalovich, Managing Partner at Agile Dynamics, said.

Analysts say cross-border transactions may offer the biggest window of opportunity for blockchain use — it reduces transaction processing costs by 40–80%, while ensuring security and end-to-end traceability of payment-related data.

As a result, the adoption of the technology will bring increasingly substantial savings for banks — rising from $301 million in 2021 to $10 billion in 2030.

One of the main obstacles to realising the forecast remains the so-called blockchain trilemma — the task of simultaneously achieving three parameters: security, scalability and decentralisation.

Among the key problems cited by respondents were changes in culture, organisational barriers and insufficient awareness. Most responses relate to regulation.

As Moody’s notes, the use of blockchain and artificial intelligence could reduce costs borne by issuers of financial instruments such as bonds over the next five years.