Analysts explain Bitcoin’s January weakness

A marked pullback in Bitcoin in the first month of the year after a halving is a historical pattern, noted crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze.

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➔ 1. Bitcoin January Dump:

BTC dumping in January has historically been a common occurrence in post-halving years.

In January 2017, BTC dumped from $1,185 to $800.

In January 2021, BTC dumped from $42,000 to $28,000. pic.twitter.com/nRn4q64aYL

— Axel Bitblaze ? (@Axel_bitblaze69) January 12, 2025

In January 2017, the price of the “digital gold” fell from $1,130 to $784 — about 30%. Following the subsequent rally, the cryptocurrency reached a peak near $20,000 by late December.

In 2021, Bitcoin fell by roughly 25% in the first month, from ~$40,000 to ~$30,000. By November, prices set a new ATH at $69,000.

This month the cryptocurrency at one point lost about 10%, sliding from a $102,300 peak on 7 January to below $92,000. After a rebound, it trades around $93,100 (CoinGecko).

“We all know what happened after the 2017 and 2021 dumps,” wrote Bitblaze.

YouTube blogger and analyst Crypto Rover noted that over the past year Bitcoin’s price has consistently fallen in the first half of each month. The January dip has been milder than many seen previously, he added.

FOR THE LAST YEAR, #BITCOIN HAS CONSISTENTLY DROPPED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH.

This is just a small dip compared to what we’ve seen before.

Don’t get shaken out here.

The bounce in the second half of the month is inevitable. pic.twitter.com/mbC6Lkjr8h

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) January 11, 2025

“Do not worry. The bounce in the second half of the month is inevitable,” the expert said.

The author of the Stockmoney Lizards YouTube channel believes the first cryptocurrency has not yet topped in this cycle. Price action will get “more fuel” over the next 12 months, he added.

#Bitcoin monthly chart with RSI color coding.

BTC has NOT reached the ultimate hype / pump phase.

This cycle has more fuel in the coming 12 months. pic.twitter.com/67wNMJenna

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) January 12, 2025

The analyst acknowledged that different cycles have been driven by different factors. He cited widespread adoption of digital assets, crypto-friendly governments around the world, and ETFs as features of the current phase.

Bitblaze pointed to another tailwind for the industry — the U.S. president-elect, Donald Trump. Incoming administrations traditionally seek to fulfill their promises, which requires injecting money into the economy. Rising liquidity has historically been positive for cryptocurrencies, the expert added.

Earlier, Fidelity specialists said one potential driver of the digital-asset market in 2025 is possible adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by a number of countries.