Analysts flag a bearish turn for bitcoin before a sprint to $1m

Analysts warn of a near-term bear phase even as Bitwise’s CIO outlines a path to $1m for bitcoin.

Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, has laid out why he thinks bitcoin could reach $1m. In a note he frames the asset as a direct competitor to gold in the global store-of-value market.

He puts the segment at roughly $38trn today, of which $36trn is gold and $1.4trn is bitcoin. The latter’s share is under 4%. For the coin to change hands at $1m, bitcoin would need to command more than half the market.

Hougan argues investors underestimate the potential expansion of the store-of-value pool itself. In 2004 gold’s market capitalisation was $2.5trn; over 20 years it swelled to $40trn, helped by rising developed-market debt, geopolitical instability and loose monetary policy. The average annual growth rate was 13%.

If that pace persists, the store-of-value market would top $121trn in ten years. At that scale bitcoin would need to capture only 17% of the segment to reach $1m.

His forecast rests on several structural shifts now under way:

• US spot bitcoin ETFs have become the fastest-growing funds on record;
• institutions have begun allocating to the asset in size;
• the cryptocurrency’s long-term volatility is falling.

Diminishing price swings are prompting professional investors to rethink strategies. Where bitcoin once merited about 1% of a portfolio, allocations now stretch to as much as 5%.

He concedes the risks: growth could slow and bitcoin could cede ground to alternative assets. Even so, his base case is for substantial appreciation as fiat money continues to lose purchasing power—making $1m a potentially conservative target.

An alternative view: a slide below $60,000

Not everyone shares the short-term optimism. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that if he had only $1 to invest today, he would not buy bitcoin.

Where is Bitcoin headed next?@CryptoHayes latest takes might surprise you.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Arthur Hayes’ origin story
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— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) March 10, 2026

He is waiting to enter the market until the Fed eases policy and the “printing press” resumes.

In the near term Hayes expects heavy selling of equities and crypto amid geopolitical tension. By his estimate, bitcoin could fall below $60,000.

His medium-term view remains positive. He is confident that in the coming years the price of digital gold will exceed $100,000.

The start of a bear market

The share of bitcoin supply in loss has reached 40–45%. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, that points to market weakness and the early phase of a bear trend.

Supply in Loss Rising Again

“Supply in Loss is increasing, indicating rising market stress. But if historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.” – By @Woo_Minkyu pic.twitter.com/5tEeQHvm4Z

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026

Historically, such readings have accompanied deep corrections or cycle shifts—as seen in 2015, 2019 and 2022. A rising share means more investors are holding coins at a loss, increasing overall stress.

Even so, he emphasised that a global bottom has not yet formed. In past cycles it appeared only after the share in loss exceeded 50%.

To Woominkyu, today’s levels signal the onset of a prolonged decline, not an imminent trend reversal.

Analyst Ted Pillows agrees. He points to bitcoin’s monthly relative strength index (RSI), which also suggests the cycle bottom has not yet been reached.

$BTC monthly RSI is indicating that a cycle bottom hasn’t happened.

IMO, when monthly RSI drops below 40, a cycle bottom will occur. pic.twitter.com/QiBeSaz6zn

— Ted (@TedPillows) March 10, 2026

He forecasts that a definitive market low will form only when the RSI falls below 40.

Funding rates slide

Bitcoin’s 30-day funding-rate percentile has fallen to 6%. That is the lowest reading since early 2023, said analyst RugaResearch.

Funding Rate 30D Percentile at 6%. The Lowest Reading Since Early 2023.

“The 30-day percentile ranks today’s funding rate against the last 30 days of readings. At 6%, almost every single day in the past month had higher funding than right now.” – By @RugaResearch pic.twitter.com/tYQWEXj8mc

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 10, 2026

On only 6% of days in the past month was funding below today’s levels. In derivatives markets, sellers dominate: shorts have been paying longs to hold positions for almost two weeks straight.

Sentiment flipped after a record January, when the average daily rate was +0.005% and the percentile mostly sat above 80%. In February the trend reversed: the average fell to −0.003%, and in March to −0.004%.

Over the past 30 days the rate was negative on 25 days. The most extreme value was −0.021% on February 6th, with similar dips below −0.01% on February 25th and 28th and March 4th. Short pressure is not easing; it is mounting.

RugaResearch stresses that a drop to 6% points to a sharp imbalance. The metric can remain “depressed” for weeks, but a stance this strong and one-sided rarely produces a gentle slide in prices. It is more often followed by a burst of volatility.

“When everyone is sure of the direction, the market usually reminds you it does not take orders,” the analyst concluded.

On March 9th, Bitfinex analysts said that the next leg for bitcoin will depend on oil prices, bond yields and Fed policy.