Analysts flag bitcoin’s ‘most accurate’ rally signal

A bullish cross seen in 2020 before a 600% rally has reappeared on bitcoin’s chart.

A bullish cross has appeared on the leading cryptocurrency’s chart, the same setup that preceded a 600% surge in 2020, according to a trader who goes by Coinvo Trading.

BREAKING: 🚨 Bitcoin’s most accurate bull run signal is here again.

The Stoch RSI of the US10Y and CN10Y just crossed for the 5th time.

Same pattern, same outcome. pic.twitter.com/JITF5ZGy36

— Coinvo Trading (@CoinvoTrading) January 26, 2026

In his view, the stochastic RSI of the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) and China’s 10-year government bond yield (CN10Y) has just crossed at levels that align with bitcoin’s weekly chart.

He called this signal “the most accurate indicator of a bull run” for digital gold. Historically it has appeared four times, and each instance was followed by price gains.

In 2021 bitcoin climbed to an all-time high of $69,000 after a similar signal.

Analyst Matthew Hyland also forecast an upward move for the leading cryptocurrency, basing his view on the behaviour of the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The last two times the $DXY broke below 96, #Bitcoin ran from $2,000 to $20,000 within 6 months and ran from $10,000 to $64,000 within 9 months

The DXY is currently sitting at 97 https://t.co/vzWGXgk2kM

— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) January 26, 2026

“The last two times the DXY fell below 96, bitcoin’s price surged: from $2,000 to $20,000 within six months and from $10,000 to $64,000 within nine,” he wrote.

The index currently sits at 97.

Why gold is rising while bitcoin is not

Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains rangebound. At the time of writing, the asset trades around $88,000.

Gold, by contrast, is setting record highs. On January 26 its price rose above $5,000 per ounce for the first time.

The divergence in performance is becoming more pronounced — earlier the correlation between them fell to zero. The last time that happened was only in mid-2022.

Analysts at Swan urged investors not to see this as a negative signal. In their view, decoupling is part of a familiar pattern: the precious metal traditionally acts “as the vanguard”.

This is wild.

Gold just ripped above $5,000/oz and the chart looks like a 2017 Bitcoin cycle.

Parabolic. Vertical. Relentless.

Instead of feeling defeated, Bitcoiners should be ecstatic about this move.

Here’s why 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/hD8CyOHKr7

— Swan (@Swan) January 26, 2026

In such periods, the first cryptocurrency can spend months consolidating before a “powerful and sudden” move higher.

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe voiced a similar view. Each time bitcoin’s price relative to gold has dropped to extremely low levels, he said, it has signalled the formation of a fundamental bottom in crypto markets.

Every time that #Bitcoin has been this low vs. Gold, it’s been the actual low in the markets on #Crypto.

And then I mean the outliers on the indicators.

It’s been the case at the bottom of 2015, 2018, 2022 and similarly, right now.

This means; a new cycle is upon us and the…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 26, 2026

“That was the case at the bottoms in 2015, 2018 and 2022, and a similar situation is unfolding now. This means: a new cycle is upon us, and the end of the bear market is truly near,” the analyst explained.

Van de Poppe named $88,500 as a key level. If the asset fails to hold above it, it will continue to test lower levels.

At the same time, the current rally in precious metals “will not last forever,” he stressed. Investors are looking for other opportunities to reallocate capital, one of which has traditionally been bitcoin.

Joe Burnett, vice-president of bitcoin strategy at Strive, also pointed to a bottom forming.

Bitcoin is currently on track for 4 down months in a row. The last time that happened:

1. Bottom of the 2018 bear market
2. Bottom of the 2014 bear market
3. Bottom of the 2011 bear market

— Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) January 25, 2026

According to him, January could be the fourth negative month in a row for digital gold. The same occurred during the bear markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018.

Earlier, Santiment analysts noted a decline in the capitalisation of stablecoins as a negative signal for the digital-asset sector.