- The average drawdown in bear phases was 74.8%, the rise during bull phases was 6060%.
- In terms of cycle duration, bull markets have lasted on average 604 days (median 571 days), bear markets 354 and 293 days respectively.
- If historical trends continue, investors can expect at least ten more corrections before reaching ATH.
- Stock-market dynamics may influence Bitcoin’s upside potential, and the halving factor is set to continue diminishing.
The average drawdown in bear market phases stood at 74.8%, with gains during bull stages at 6060%. These estimates were provided by IOSG.
Experts say Bitcoin is currently approaching the middle of its sixth bull market.
Cycle parameters
In the tables below, the analysts present statistics for each of the bull and bear markets. The average figures for growth and depth of drawdown were 6000% and 74.8%, with medians of 1400% and 77% respectively.
Bull markets have lasted on average 604 days (median 571 days), bear markets 354 and 293 days respectively.
Comparison with previous cycles
The current bull cycle lasts about a year. The graph below compares the returns with those of previous cycles.
The current bull market has shown a more gradual profile in historical retrospect.
On the path to the peak, the previous cycle experienced nearly 115 daily corrections of 5% or more, while in the current cycle there were 10.
If historical patterns (not fewer than 20 pullbacks of 5% and more) remain in force, one can expect at least ten more corrections before this cycle’s peak.
Impact of halvings
Noting the absence of a statistically significant sample size to assess the impact of halvings, analysts noted that visually one can see their influence on prices.
In percentage terms, the impact of the halving is gradually diminishing as Bitcoin matures. A year after the last such event, the price rose more than sixfold.
Relation to the stock market
For the pre-halving period there is also strong price movement, but less pronounced than after the event. With each new cycle, the effect diminished—from 400% to 25%.
Analysts noted that the halving coincided with favorable conditions in the equity market.
Experts are skeptical of the thesis that the halving plays a decisive role in timing the start of a new cycle.
Crypto traders are likely to keep a close eye on the external environment. It is expected that interest rates, oil prices and the outcome of ongoing geopolitical wars will have a significant impact on the overall macrocycle, — concluded the specialists.
Earlier, analysts at K33 Research concluded that Bitcoin is recovering faster than in previous cycles.