The $110,000 level is a “lifeline” for bitcoin, Swissblock said.
$BTC is at a make-or-break level:
$110K = lifeline support
$121K = ceiling to break
In short: BTC has proven resilience above $100K, but survival above $110K will decide if the trend continues bullish or tips into structural weakness. pic.twitter.com/g24CMc96cN
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) August 26, 2025
The firm argues that holding this level is needed to keep the bull trend intact. The “ceiling” to clear for further gains is $121,000.
Analyst AlphaBTC likewise highlighted the $110,000–$112,000 area.
📈#Bitcoin game plan 📈
Lower time frame view as $BTC attempts to break back out of the June / July range.
For me, until we get a H4 close above 112K I still feel 105K is in play, so I will be watching that level closely.#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/pUUFtwwVDX pic.twitter.com/vCfRVF7s5s
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) August 27, 2025
He said a four-hour close above that band is required to restart the advance; otherwise a pullback to $105,000 is likely.
Signs of weakness
At press time, bitcoin trades at $110,951 (down 0.6% on the day). The price is 10.6% below the all-time high of $124,128, reached on August 14.
Bitcoin’s taker buy-sell ratio fell to -0.945. Readings below 1 indicate sellers are in control. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah noted this signals market pessimism. Similar levels were seen at the November 2021 peak, after which a correction followed.
Network activity is also ebbing. According to Glassnode, the monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume fell by 13% — from $26.7bn to $23.2bn.
Network Activity Slowing
The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in… pic.twitter.com/gnyTokjzmA
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025
The company says a drop below the yearly average of $21.6bn would confirm weakening demand.
Market cooldown
Glassnode reckons the market has entered a “late-cycle phase”, as evidenced by elevated realized profits.
#Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1σ band) — the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history. pic.twitter.com/tYGHf21MvP
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025
TYMIO founder Georgy Verbitsky told Decrypt he expects a “cooling period” that could last into September.
Sentiment is also pressured by outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic risks. According to Ecoinometrics, if outflows persist the price could fall to $107,000 and even slip below the psychological $100,000 mark.
ETF flows are pulling Bitcoin lower.
As of Friday, our flows-to-price model put the expected price at $107K, with downside risk below $100K if outflows persist.
The macro uncertainty of the past few weeks is showing up directly in the flows. pic.twitter.com/iMF3lTQlIv
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) August 26, 2025
Verbitsky also allows for a drop toward that level.
He advised against opening new long positions and to wait. In his view, buying is justified only after price holds above $118,000.
Binance inflows and a divergence from M2
Amid the sell-off, Binance users deposited $1.65bn in stablecoins. Large stablecoin inflows to exchanges often precede rising demand for cryptocurrencies.
According to CryptoQuant, the inflows coincided with almost $1bn in Ethereum withdrawals from Binance. An analyst known as Amr Taha noted this is the second time in a month that stablecoin inflows to the exchange have topped $1.5bn, “underscoring a new wave of capital entering the spot market”.
Bitcoin’s drop to $109,000 produced the sharpest divergence in two years from the trajectory of global M2, a gauge of money in circulation.
Since the pandemic, bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with M2, typically with a two- to three‑month lag, giving traders a guide to short‑term price trends.
Even so, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, who was among the first to highlight this relationship, noted that over the long run the correlation is stronger with total global liquidity rather than M2 alone.
The longer term correlation (not daily wiggles) is Far stronger using Total Global Liquidity and not Global M2
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) August 25, 2025
Earlier, on-chain analyst James Check outlined a halving-independent model of bitcoin cycles.