Analysts set out conditions for Ethereum to reach $4,000

ETH must clear $3,800–$3,900 to aim for fresh highs, analysts say.

The price of the second-largest cryptocurrency has recovered to about $3,500. The asset must clear the $3,800–$3,900 area to pursue new highs, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe.

Technically speaking, $ETH is in accumulation land.

It needs to bereak the $3,800-3,900 area and then we’re off towards new ATHs.

Overall, it’s still 20-30% to go before we’re back to the levels before October 10th.

Things take time. pic.twitter.com/rl4UxB9kL2

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 11, 2025

Investor Ted Pillows noted that Ethereum tried to hold above $3,700 but ultimately slipped. If the coin can reclaim that level, the next target is the $4,000–$4,100 area.

$ETH failed to reclaim the $3,700 level and is now going down.

There’s some strong support for Ethereum around $3,400 which could get retested.

In case ETH is able to reclaim the $3,700 level, it’ll tap the $4,000-$4,100 liquidity zone. pic.twitter.com/R2TmxklLvD

— Ted (@TedPillows) November 11, 2025

Trader Crypto-ROD pointed to the same level.

Analyst Jelle said the asset’s next move depends on bulls, who “need to step in” for Ethereum.

Bulls really need to step in for $ETH as well.

Lose current area too and we have a disgusting deviation on our hands.

The sooner we get back above 4k, the better. pic.twitter.com/XQ3iRupumE

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) November 11, 2025

“If we lose the current area as well, we will get an extremely unpleasant deviation. The sooner we get back above $4,000, the better,” he wrote.

Investors currently hold about 4.2 million ETH bought at an average cost between $3,600 and $3,815. Those levels have formed a potential resistance zone. If market participants sell near breakeven, it could slow Ethereum’s upward momentum.

At the time of writing, the second-largest cryptocurrency trades around $3,550, down 1.4% over the past 24 hours.

A potential catalyst

Ethereum balances on the largest crypto exchange, Binance, have fallen to their lowest since last May, noted CryptoQuant contributor Arab_Chain.

Ethereum Exchange Supply on Binance Falls to Its Lowest Level Since Last May

“Overall, current indicators reflect a transitional phase in the Ethereum market, where investors appear to be accumulating and holding.” – By @ArabxChain

Read more ⤵️https://t.co/zwIkpf5Yh1 pic.twitter.com/vNLCJQyuIl

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 11, 2025

The ratio of the asset’s available supply on the platform has reached 0.0327, extending a downtrend that began mid-year. Peaks were seen in June–July, followed by a sharp contraction in November.

Falling exchange balances of Ethereum are traditionally viewed as a medium-term bullish signal: fewer coins available to sell reduces market pressure.

The move coincided with a pullback from the August–September highs at $4,500–$5,000 to around $3,500. According to Arab_Chain, this indicates a shift from profit-taking to accumulation.

“If the current trend of declining Ethereum supply on Binance continues, we may see a reduction in liquidity available for sale. This would support potential price stabilization and a possible return to an uptrend as risk appetite improves,” the expert stressed.

However, he warned that persistently weak demand and lower on-chain activity could usher in a sideways market or a short-term drop.

Leon Waidmann, head of research at Onchain Foundation, added that about 10% of Ethereum’s total supply remains on exchanges.

Ethereum is now more scarce on centralized exchanges than Bitcoin! 🔥

Only ~10% of ETH’s total supply remains on exchanges — compared to ~14% for BTC.

This is a massive structural shift showing how much ETH has moved into staking, DeFi, and long-term custody.

Less ETH on… pic.twitter.com/DAyTCjJLzh

— Leon Waidmann 🔥 (@LeonWaidmann) November 11, 2025

“This is a massive structural shift showing how much ETH has moved into staking, DeFi and long-term custody. […] Such scarcity creates fundamental support for price growth in the long term,” the analyst said.

Earlier, the expert ShayanMarkets pointed out the return of whales to the Ethereum market.