- By 2030, Bitcoin could rise to $120,000-$2,300,000.
- Smart contract platforms could achieve an annual fee level of $450 billion.
- The convergence of hardware and software could reduce AI training costs by 75% CAGR by 2030.
If Bitcoin’s share in global investment portfolios rises to 1%, its price could increase to $120,000, and with an optimal 19.4%, to $2.3 million. These calculations were made by analysts at ARK Invest.
Experts valued global portfolios at $250 trillion.
The 19.4% figure was derived after optimizing the risk-adjusted return parameter for 2023. Other portfolio components included gold (40.7%), stocks (30.2%), and commodities (9.6%).
In 2015, the optimal share of digital gold in a portfolio was 0.5%, experts noted.
The increase in the first cryptocurrency’s share in the model portfolio resulted from its reduced correlation with other assets. In this regard, Bitcoin’s average value (0.27) was comparable to that of gold (0.25).
Analysts recalled that during the US banking crisis in March 2023, digital gold proved itself as a safe-haven asset.
As drivers for further Bitcoin capitalization growth, analysts cited the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, halving, institutional adoption, and further reduction of regulatory uncertainty.
Among the “big ideas,” experts also highlighted the development of artificial intelligence, digital wallets, and smart contracts.
Smart Contract Platforms
According to analysts, by 2030, smart contract platforms could reach an annual fee level of $450 billion (78% CAGR).
The forecast is based on the migration of financial assets to blockchain infrastructure at the pace of internet adoption. Experts suggested that the average fee size would be three times lower compared to TradFi.
The realization of the aforementioned forecast would lead to the growth of the total value of smart contract platforms from $775 billion to $5.3 trillion.
Digital Wallets
According to ARK Invest, closed-loop consumer payments, merchant banking, and employee payroll will increase revenues for some vertical software platforms by 22-33% annually over the next seven years, from $7 billion to $27-50 billion.
Experts identified Block, Shopify, and Toast as potential leaders that will use digital wallets to eliminate intermediaries and as the core of their ecosystems of consumers, merchants, and employees.
Artificial Intelligence
According to ARK Invest, the convergence of hardware and software could reduce AI training costs by 75% CAGR by 2030. In the first case, improvements should reduce the costs of producing AI-related computing units by 53% annually, and in the second, by 47% annually.
If the productivity of knowledge workers increases fourfold, real GDP growth could accelerate and set records over the next five to ten years, specialists added.
Earlier, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin could rise to $1.5 million by 2030 under a bullish scenario.
Previously, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released an essay, “My Techno-Optimism,” in which he shared his views on the impact of new technologies on the development of human civilization.