Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge Amid Yuan Weakness

China’s response to the new US tariffs could trigger a capital shift into cryptocurrencies, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.

CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into $BTC.

It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025.

Ignore China at your own peril. pic.twitter.com/LAOeQZEjZt

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 8, 2025

The devaluation of the yuan by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in response to US trade tariffs could trigger a new bull run in the crypto market, the expert believes.

“If not the Fed, then the PBOC will provide all the necessary conditions for growth,” Hayes noted.

He recalled that a similar scenario was observed in 2013 and 2015 and could repeat in 2025.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou agreed with Hayes.

Translation: US vs China Tariff war … China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff, historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, bullish for BTC. https://t.co/OQ4wtSdDWQ

— Ben Zhou (@benbybit) April 8, 2025

He emphasized that in the past, amid yuan weakening, “a significant portion of Chinese capital flowed into Bitcoin,” creating a strong impetus for the asset’s growth.

In August 2015, China devalued the yuan by nearly 2% against the US dollar, marking the largest one-day drop in decades. During this period, interest in digital gold surged, although the question of direct causation remains debated.

In August 2019, the yuan’s exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 7:1. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price rose. Some analysts suggested that Chinese investors used the digital asset as a hedge, as the coin’s rate jumped 20% in the first week of August.

In September 2023, analysts at Bloomberg noted that amid a weakening national currency, investors often use Bitcoin to preserve capital and circumvent restrictions related to currency control. 

Devaluation also undermines trust in central banks and the traditional financial system, which may accelerate the shift to decentralized instruments like digital assets, experts explained.

On April 7, US President Donald Trump ruled out lifting existing tariffs and threatened to impose new 50% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Amidst this, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned of Bitcoin falling to $10,000.