Autumn ATH for bitcoin, a DeFi boom and the end of hype: predictions for 2026

Experts map 2026: bitcoin ATH, DeFi’s next act, tighter rules and fading hype.

If the crypto market made New Year’s resolutions, in 2026 it would finally decide to grow up. The industry is dropping hypey slogans in favour of steady, unglamorous work aimed at a full-scale overhaul.

DeFi will turn into a complex quest, private networks will hit the mainstream, and projects with real utility will edge out storytellers promising “easy Xs”.

How will that coexist with rent-seeking market makers and a hunt for loopholes under the regulator’s baton? Will we witness audacious victories or shocking failures?

ForkLog gathered expert forecasts so you can peer into the future without leaving your Olivier salad. Read to the end for bitcoin’s potential ceiling next year—and whether risk-free yield has really vanished.

Coming market trends and anti-trends

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO, Exved:

I keep emphasising the tight link between cryptocurrencies and the global economy, though the crusade of institutional giants against Strategy will tweak bitcoin’s behaviour, especially in January’s short term. Sadly, there is little to cheer for longs. Most likely, Michael Saylor and similar firms will no longer be able to hoover up bitcoin and Ethereum at industrial scale from the market; whether JPMorgan and BlackRock keep doing so with the same zeal—we’ll see.

The key questions, of course, sit in US fiscal and monetary policy and decisions by the Fed. Will there be a predicted pause in rate cuts, or in 2026 will the rate drop closer to 2%? What are the prospects for stimulus via various QE programmes? In that sense, for crypto holders the worse the economy looks, the better. And if [U.S. President Donald] Trump delivers on his pledge to hand out “helicopter money” from higher tariffs ahead of the midterms, we could yet see a new ATH for bitcoin next year.

Overall, I do not expect a critically deep correction; whether bitcoin dips to $74,000 or $60,000 does not really matter—it will rise later anyway, if not in 2026 then the year after. In short: if you have bitcoin, hold it; if not, look to buy the dips. Your kids will thank you.

The third factor is the AI bubble—or whether there is one at all. If that space stays orderly, the world economy will keep growing, with the S&P indices breaking above 7000. If not, a serious correction could hit global markets, which traditionally smacks crypto prices and could push total market cap below $2trn.

Vladimir Menaskop, Web3 entrepreneur:

Technology trends for 2026:

1. ZKP—as foundational as blockchain itself: without it, nothing else works.
2. Oracles 2.0—fast, omnichain and with a focus on decentralisation.
3. Storage optimisation and decentralisation (Arweave, Filecoin and others remain promising here).
4. To build global distributed computers you need not only storage, but memory and other components—an inevitable evolutionary vector.
5. Its direct offshoot: AI projects built on resource rental.
6. DePin in the broadest sense is crucial: data sets, storage, resource rental.
7. Optimising DAG; without it neither L2 nor competing solutions will evolve, and we’ll be stuck in a perpetual stream of homogenous data.

Economic trends:

1. Tokenomics was treated by projects as a pretty table with a chart; 2025 showed it’s not, so I expect sweeping changes here.
2. Mutual insurance funds and similar instruments are a must—another lesson from the 2025 hacks.
3. Bridging offline and online. The old “foundation + DAO” approach works, but it is neither the only nor the most efficient one.
4. Moving away from conservative governance towards more flexible models where capital is just one lever; reputation is the second, and the third is time and user activity.
5. VE tokenomics is a goldmine, but it also needs a refresh—see AERO and VELO merging.
6. “Bribes” are now embedded in VE tokenomics, but can also progress on their own, especially alongside AI mechanics.
7. Everything will be tokenised: if your business isn’t tokenised, it simply doesn’t exist. This is the bedrock of the future economy.

Organisational trends:

1. The community has fully stratified: enthusiasts on one side, institutions on the other, with newbies (“hamsters”), speculators, traders and others in between. The split will deepen.
2. DAOs have gone “under the hood”, and even DeepDAO couldn’t keep up—margins are too thin. But DAOs are indispensable—the basis of any decentralised project.
3. Speculator communities have diversified: holders of sybil farms, farming droppers, airdrop hunters and more. Expect more shocks for them next year, as with the loss of returns from drops and testnets.
4. Liquidity providers matter enormously: it’s already a “profession” and a business, but many large players have entered and will try to dictate terms.
5. Community-management tools keep shifting: Discord is creaking, Telegram is playing too hard with TON, and Farcaster moved into the wallet. 2026–2028 could yield something new from both mature and nascent platforms.
6. Communities are ever more niche, making real traffic hard to find: quest platforms and the like provide shilling, not substance; Google and similar ads are inefficient; SMM works only once the flywheel is spinning. We must move from shilling to something more fundamental.
7. Most key KOLs have discredited themselves, so people increasingly turn to real authorities: developers and system architects. This will become more visible—even if influencers won’t disappear.

Anti-trends:

1. The Web 3.0 & Web3 (WW3) industry is going mainstream, so social-engineering hacks and targeted attacks will rise.
2. Speculators dislike low-margin industries and will migrate to AI and elsewhere—which is not entirely bad.
3. Crypto wants to be “clean and cuddly”, yet keeps lying down for states and corporations: most forget cypherpunk principles and just “make money”. That’s the worst possible outcome, but likely inevitable. The only antidote is enthusiasm and education, and channelling some WW3 proceeds to help newbies—the riskiest, most impressionable group.
4. The past five years brought huge amounts of technological, economic and legal copy-pasting. Winners will recognise that uniqueness is native to WW3.
5. There’s a lot of blatant flirting with DAT mechanics and bets on regulated markets—a global booby trap that won’t play out as many expect because there are more unknowns than meets the eye.
6. Time now works against enthusiasts: it never was on our side, and today you cannot stand still—you must keep moving. The anti-trend is that most people want only simple templates for earning and distribution. That ultimately slows everyone down.
7. The main anti-trend is disbelief in altcoins: bitcoin has become a narrative and a thing-in-itself, but that is simply centralisation in a new guise. If altcoins don’t develop, we will lose decentralisation for good.

Richard Teng, co-CEO, Binance:

By 2026 it has become clear that digital assets are entering a new, pivotal phase. The industry is defined not only by growth, but by deep integration into global finance and a more mature market structure.

The past year revealed a fundamental shift in the profile of bitcoin holders, underscoring a changing market landscape. As of December 2025, BTC on exchanges fell to a five-year low of 2.94m BTC, while holdings by public companies and bitcoin ETFs keep rising and now exceed 2.5m BTC in aggregate. The migration from retail to institutions is more than dry stats. It is a turning point that could dampen volatility, smooth speculative swings and soften the depth and length of future bear markets. In other words, we may be moving to less pronounced cycles befitting a more stable, mature asset class.

This shift is part of a broader transformation. Digital assets are evolving from speculative mechanics to strategic financial tools. Over 200 public firms already hold bitcoin on balance sheet, signalling growing confidence in crypto as diversification and long-term store of value. We see a similar pattern at Binance: institutional users rose 14% and institutional trading volume 13% year on year. In 2026 we expect an acceleration: corporate treasuries will diversify not only into BTC and ETH but also select altcoins, while governments and public institutions will engage more via regulatory frameworks and pilots.

As regulation develops, asset pricing will tilt towards fundamentals: real utility, sustainable economics and compliance. This matters especially for altcoins, historically more volatile.

We also expect further growth in regulated access channels such as ETFs, which offer safer, easier entry points beyond bitcoin. Stablecoins are proving their worth not only as payment tools but as drivers of financial inclusion. In 2025 these “stable coins” topped $300bn in market cap, helped by clearer rules like the GENIUS Act in the US.

Technology will remain a key driver. The convergence of AI and blockchain is building a smarter, safer financial infrastructure—the backbone of every economic subsector. At Binance, AI is already widely integrated to boost efficiency and security. It has helped users avoid losses worth millions and will play an even bigger role in personalising experience, strengthening compliance and safeguarding the ecosystem.

We are convinced the next chapter for crypto is meaningful adoption, trust and long-term impact. When innovation meets responsibility, digital assets become part of everyday finance.

Global crypto regulation

Vladimir Menaskop, Web3 entrepreneur:

States are tightening rules for stablecoins and other assets, but this can be turned to advantage: for instance, by creating meta-stables that sit outside the regulatory window, or by exploring algorithmic tools still in their infancy.

Acts such as MiCA in the EU and laws in the US show jurisdictions diverging—contradictions that can and should be used inside the crypto-offshore.

There will always be assets less regulated in some jurisdictions: be it NFT 2.0 or other programmable assets, tokenised delta-neutral strategies.

Digital-asset classes are evolving: we had native tokens (coins), then fungible and non-fungible tokens, semi-fungibles, synthetics, programmables and more. It is crucial to define the legal status of the specific assets you use—many exist only in crypto-offshore.

This will expand the reach of platforms like Chainalysis, broaden AML screening (both “on the fly” and deferred) and raise its importance across services.

The RWA segment will need special treatment, tougher than standard DeFi.

Keep an eye on cases around Tornado Cash, Samurai Wallet and the like—the answers lie there.

Regulatory risk is a constant. Projects can protect themselves by:

• building real DAOs, not mere declarations as with bZx and others;
• pushing the boundaries of tokenomics and prioritising token velocity over one-off distribution;
• doing documentation before, not after, launching a token;
• developing communities without relying on perpetual shilling;
• studying practice at the SEC and other regulators without banking on a friendly administration in any given country;
• creating truly global solutions;
• sacrificing founder recognisability in favour of open, anonymous and decentralised designs.

The world has split into zones, with a fault line between those betting on CBDCs (China, Iran, Russia, South Korea and others) and on stablecoins (primarily the US). This rivalry always leaves legal gaps to exploit.

Tying yourself to a legal entity looks good—until reality bites: the UAE isn’t always lenient, the US isn’t always kind, Russia changes requirements year by year, and China is ready to ban what is not yet born.

Therefore, market participants should:

• create as many clean but anonymous wallets as possible;
• learn to use private DeFi—and fast;
• study tax law carefully and optimise crypto taxes legally.

Regulation in Russia

Andrey Tugarin, founder, GMT Legal:

In 2026 Russia introduces mandatory licensing for crypto exchanges and exchangers; in 2027 administrative and criminal liability will follow for providing such services without a licence.

The relevant roadmap and later the concept were presented by the Bank of Russia, which for five years held conservative, prohibitive views on crypto turnover domestically.

There are several reasons for the central bank’s pivot. Russia is one of the few CIS countries still without rules for organising crypto circulation.

The status of stablecoins remains undefined. For Russian users, buying and selling crypto is effectively limited to P2P, where fraud and dirty money are rife—leading to mass account blocks under 115 and 161 federal laws.

There is no draft bill yet, but licence requirements for exchangers and exchanges can be predicted:

• a legal entity registered in Russia;
• authorised capital;
• mandatory user identification, with personal data stored per Russian law;
• full AML/FT controls;
• an AML officer;
• mandatory digital compliance to block illegal crypto from circulating in Russia;
• technical requirements for trading platforms owned by exchanges and exchangers.

With 99% probability, licensing and the relevant registry will be run by the central bank.

Penalties expected in 2027 for unlicensed services can also be sketched. Administrative fines: 400,000–600,000 roubles for sole proprietors; 1m–2m roubles for legal entities. Attempts to introduce this norm were made in the summer by the Ministry of Digital Development.

Criminal provisions will likely be refined, with potential prison terms and confiscation of crypto from illegal exchanges and exchangers.

New definitions, including for stablecoins, are expected in 2026. This will help set the tax base for transactions and delineate what is permitted.

What does this mean for the market? Those running “exchangers” on websites, organising P2P platforms or working at scale with drop cards and mass transfers will face a choice in 2026:

• pursue a licence—revamp corporate structure, “whiten” turnover, build KYC/AML, technical infrastructure and digital compliance;
• exit the Russian perimeter—shut down or move to a foreign jurisdiction, stopping work with Russian users.

Regulation in Ukraine

Kirill Khomyakov, head of Binance for CEE, Central Asia and Africa:

The bill “On the Virtual Assets Market” is crucial for Ukraine and has drawn an unprecedented number of amendments—around 750 pages from MPs. The relevant committee must now meet, examine them in detail and decide which to accept and which to reject.

In our view, there are useful and constructive proposals, as well as frankly poor and in some cases potentially harmful ones. The task now is to protect the bill’s concept and make it more flexible and workable in practice, rather than overly complex and effectively unimplementable for both business and users.

It is vital to preserve several essentials:

• a reasonable, effective tax rate;
• no mandatory transfer of user personal data by exchanges—otherwise the market simply will not function;
• a regulatory model that minimises manipulation and corruption risks, particularly in licensing.

Given Ukraine’s circumstances, a prolonged vote is likely. If the supervisory authority is not named directly in the law—a probable scenario—it will be appointed by the Cabinet of Ministers. Subordinate regulations will then be drafted and adopted before the framework goes live.

Under current conditions, the most optimistic scenario is licensing beginning in the third to fourth quarter.

Stablecoins

Dmitry Machikhin, BitOK:

In 2025 stablecoin rules were refreshed across multiple jurisdictions (MiCA in the EU, the GENIUS Act in the US, proposals in the UK, regimes in Singapore and Hong Kong)—a turning point for the asset class.

Key practical consequences for users and businesses:

1. KYC/AML at parity with, or stricter than, traditional fiat payment providers.
2. On-chain analytics and wallet risk-scoring as standard.
3. Ongoing reserve attestations and capital/risk management requirements.
4. The convenience of instant payments and transfers comes with heightened regulatory scrutiny. AML is not just reporting—it is risk monitoring that shields businesses from links to illicit crypto activity.
5. Non-dollar stablecoins are a trend too. Examples include A7A5, which reached a $0.5bn market cap in under a year, USDKG from Kyrgyzstan, and the yuan-pegged offshore AxCNH in Kazakhstan.

In 2026 the trend will strengthen. It is not a passing hype; rather, this is the bridge between TradFi and crypto—the best tokenisation use case.

Mining

Alex Petrov, co-founder, Hyperfusion:

Bitcoin mining stands on the cusp of sweeping change. In 2026, fierce competition for energy, regulatory pressure, accumulation of BTC by states and big corporates, and AI data-centre buildout will reshape the global map of mining.

Peak hashrate and key trends

The bitcoin network’s power keeps exploding. Since 2009, engineering optimisations cut energy usage a billion-fold—from 16MJ/Gh to 12J/Th—while boosting efficiency over 20bn times, from 10Mh/s to 580Th/s (on Bitmain’s Antminer S23 Hydro). A vast evolution driven by maths and competition.

In spring 2025, hashrate surpassed 1,000 EH/s, doubling in a year. If that pace holds, by end-2026 the industry could reach 1,250–1,350 EH/s. Growth will come not only from new ASICs but, more importantly, from states and firms that, alongside BTC accumulation, will seek a slice of mining—a logical security step.

Another defining trend is intensifying competition with AI data centres for power. This is already pushing miners to regions with “stranded” generation or weak grids where big tech is reluctant to build. “Energy arbitrage” becomes a core skill—operating flexibly at off-peak tariffs and joining grid-stabilisation programmes (Demand Response), which benefits companies and end-users.

Regulators can still pressure pools and mining companies by altering hosting contract terms or imposing extra taxes—vulnerabilities that trigger migrations.

Renewables’ share in global mining has exceeded 50%. In 2026 that will be critical for access to capital and survival under tighter rules, especially in the EU and US.

Home mining gear is another trend. In Europe and Canada, firms are selling heating and hot-water systems based on such devices, cutting power bills.

Under MiCA, the EU will keep rolling out strict energy/CO2 reporting—yet another hurdle for miners.

Miner migration

2026 will bring targeted, not mass, migration. Faced with higher power costs, stricter rules and AI competition in traditional hubs (eg parts of the US), miners will relocate.

Migrations will favour regions with:

• abundant stranded generation, poorly tied to main grids;
• political stability and friendly or neutral rules;
• cheap renewables (geothermal and hydro).

CIS states, Northern Europe, Latin America and Oceania will stay in focus. As flexible consumers, miners can help stabilise grids there.

Industry leaders

Consolidation will continue. Survivors will be those able to diversify risk, optimise and react faster than peers.

By end-2026, the industry will further split between a highly professional, capital-intensive sector and niche, agile mining models. Success will hinge not only on hardware efficiency but also on energy contracts, macro agility and constructive engagement with regulators.

Key players to watch in 2026:

1. Public companies: Cipher Mining (CIFR), Bitfarms (BITF), IREN, Hut 8 and Core Scientific (CORZ). Their strengths are scale, public-market access and diversification (eg CIFR and CORZ expanding into AI).
2. Vertically integrated operators controlling the chain end to end—from generation or power contracts to hosting and pooling—gaining cost and resilience advantages.
3. Financial and infrastructure giants: Galaxy Digital (GLXY) or Strategy (MSTR). Not pure-play miners, but central to the ecosystem (investment, BTC custody, services).
4. Energy companies such as Kinder Morgan (KMI) play key roles as resource suppliers.

DeFi

Vladimir Menaskop, Web3 entrepreneur:

In 2026 DeFi has more growth vectors than ever. The most compelling:

ZKP

We are at a technological inflection point. Expect exponential expansion—from ZKP-KYC to ZKPs at the L1 level. It’s not only about privacy, but also lower fees, speed and, in time, compactness.

Private DeFi

Last year proved the staying power of anonymous and private crypto. The approaches of Monero, Zcash and Mina will keep developing inside a far larger ecosystem and become its base—along with moving much onto EVM in L2/L3.

Crosschain 2.0 and stablecoins

Old multi- and crosschain approaches are giving way to omnichain strategies: the CCTP protocol from USDc, USDt0 and similar.

Crosschain liquidity is becoming essential. It will start to turn into a single melting pot—already spawning the 402 standard, Uniswap v4 hooks, and novel solutions from Chainlink and LayerZero.

Nativeness

Omnichain and crosschain 2.0 require collateral that is both safe and flexible—possible only inside the chains themselves. In 2026, native staking could morph into native collateral deposits.

Protocol-Owned Liquidity is essentially an attempt to fuse crosschain with nativeness.

RWA: institutionalisation and tokenisation

The segment will evolve rapidly, expanding the number and complexity of instruments. Expect a niche for national stablecoins and related assets (akin to DFAs in Russia).

A second strand: unsecured credit based on past payment history, on-chain data and more. AI will be indispensable, and solutions like XRP will serve as patterns for direct, fast deployments.

Neobanks

The super-narrative is cash flow and profit by any means. Institutions and VC will back schemes where flows are transparent, clear and predictable.

New derivatives

This will trigger a boom in derivatives markets, including hashrate tokenisation, staking-enabled ETFs and Web3 indexes. Beyond structured products for institutions and programmable assets for retail, new assets will emerge in AI, RWA, ReFi and CeDeFi. Prediction markets will inevitably integrate with delta-neutral and other strategies.

Crucially, DeFi principles must hold and collateral must be transparent—otherwise any superstructure will collapse.

Other prospects

In 2026 DeFi yield-chasers are likely to focus on value averaging and other advanced mechanics. Expect reshuffles across perp-DEX and AMM markets and lending, where leaders are visible and competition is being ruthlessly optimised.

The biggest problem lies with market makers and their ties to CEXs—DeFi’s chief foes: they manipulate, dump, knock out liquidity and more. Their clash with regulators will bring a “bloody harvest” and hard ultimatums. The result will be growth in decentralised market makers.

In DeFAI, breakthroughs are possible in capital efficiency, accounting and rebalancing. But I would not expect AI agents to become autonomous yield farmers in the next three years. The segment will face more attack vectors, prompting headaches with approvals and delegations like EIP-7702. The trend towards automated and autonomous liquidity will persist—but be as risky as farming in the early 2020s.

Privacy

Andrey Veliky, founder, Allbridge:

The ZK market will move towards compliant privacy, akin to the banking world in TradFi. End users won’t see balances or counterparties, but, if needed—eg upon a police request—services will be able to trace the transaction.

It will likely be more elegant than, say, Zcash today. First, there is no route into stablecoins. Second, Zcash has two address types—transparent and shielded—and privacy only applies to payments between two shielded addresses. In my view, that’s clunky. You can go the Monero way, where every transaction is shielded, but then you face risk-score issues and XMR delistings. So I expect a market for compliant privacy payments in stablecoins in 2026.

The most viable monetisation model for private transactions in 2026 remains purely transactional (fees).

ZK will become a must-have in Web3. People have many reasons to protect data, starting with physical safety. Privacy is a fundamental right, and ZK offers a convenient toolkit.

AI and robotics

Sergey Lonshakov, architect of the “Robonomics” project:

2026 is a fascinating year for robots and AI. Recent AI breakthroughs have jolted humanoid-robot ideas from near-zero; humanoids are the main universal actuators. Everything humans can do, in theory robots can too.

Drawing on the research used by engineers at Tesla and Figure, and some hands-on work with a Unitree humanoid, my expectations are:

Figure AI focuses on an already proven architecture with “several lobes of the brain” (in practice, two today). This makes systems a bit more adaptable, though their current deployment at BMW handles a very limited task—a simple assembly step in one shop. We’ll see if they can extend the approach. I like the analogy with the human brain: we have lobes, yet it’s one and the same entity.

The second direction, apparently pursued by Tesla Bot, is end-to-end learning. For example, Unitree may need to swap “tooling” or a behaviour model tuned via cloud simulation. End-to-end is a way to make robots universal “on the fly”. For now, Elon Musk’s project is at simple factory operations.

The third direction is straightforward factory upgrades. Chinese manufacturers—whose numbers will grow—will drive volume, starting at home. Expect hundreds of odd robots on AliExpress that may or may not work. Much depends on open software development.

Boston Dynamics—Hyundai’s robotics veteran—is worth watching. Its prototypes are being tested at factories in South Korea.

In sum: at best, expect many plants with humanoid robots worldwide. For the home, a practical product likely won’t arrive before 2027. We need a real scientific breakthrough for the kitchen; factories are almost there.

Top cyber risks

Experts at F6:

The top cyber incident trend in 2025 was exploiting big brands, news hooks and memes. In the new year we expect scams riffing on current events to expand. Anticipate more fake crypto projects, “state programmes” and meme-coins built to lure victims fast.

Combined attack chains will intensify. Social engineering will be paired more often with malicious drainers and phishing pages, including inside popular services and messengers.

Attacks using miners will retain a high share. Stealthy, modular miner families will keep improving and embedding into legitimate processes to evade detection.

Criminals will focus on rapid monetisation. Vectors will shift to thefts that pay quickly: seed-phrase theft, wallet compromise, spoofed exchange services and other direct-drain schemes.

Maksim Sizykh, CTO, Envelop:

We have seen many failures in internet infrastructure projects lately—consider incidents at Cloudflare, AWS or the hack of Node repositories.

This adds risk for crypto, since Web3 relies heavily on Web2. As a result, Oracles may suffer delays, including price feeds—which can trigger liquidations in lending protocols.

Outages or breaches in off-chain components of L2 networks, such as bridges, are also possible.

Geopolitics and economic shocks

Alex Momot, CEO, Peanut Trade:

Possible scenarios

The key risk that could most affect capital flows into crypto in 2026 is a lingering threat of war between China and Taiwan. Some analysts see it as plausible; if realised, it would have grave consequences for the global economy and, in turn, Web3.

In my view, the probability remains low: Beijing traditionally avoids hard, binary moves that foreclose options.

A second factor concerns Europe, which could face new risks as US military support wanes and a truce or peace deal between Ukraine and Russia becomes possible. This is less likely to cause global escalation than a Taiwan crisis, but is more probable and could have significant regional economic effects.

There are intermediate scenarios in which, even after formal peace, tensions persist: economic blockades, sanctions and hybrid conflict. In that case, direct military escalation is averted and the situation remains relatively stable.

Overall, the most likely 2026 scenario is no major upheavals in these two regions. The biggest changes are intangible: a shifting world order and a changing US role. The new American doctrine effectively abandons old-style NATO leadership and shifts Europe’s security burden onto Europe itself.

These shifts create latent risks. They may materialise in later years, but are unlikely to do so in 2026.

Crypto as a safe asset

In 2026 crypto is unlikely to become a full safe haven, though big funds and institutions have softened. A few percent of a portfolio is seen as acceptable—but mainly in bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, ether and some large networks.

Institutional money is selective and concentrates in regulated products and centralised channels, largely bypassing DEXs, meme-coins and small projects. This deepens the divide between the institutional crypto segment and the high-risk retail ecosystem.

Participation by large players will grow, but at a pace still slow by Web3 standards. In the short term, prices are still driven by crypto’s own logic and global liquidity. Crypto will remain a risk asset, despite gradual institutionalisation in some pockets.

Debt and banking crises

A clear global debt or banking crisis in major economies is unlikely in the near term, including 2026. Current conditions point to prolonged structural imbalances rather than an imminent systemic crash.

Such distortions are visible in China, Russia and elsewhere. China keeps smoothing internal strains via large stimulus and record trade surpluses. Russia’s economy functions under sanctions, but its macro metrics are gradually worsening without signs of an acute crisis. In some emerging markets, including Argentina, economic and FX constraints are offset by adaptation and widespread digital payments.

The odds of a crisis that would radically remake global finance in 2026 are low. Some economies will keep sliding; Ukraine will retain access to sizable European financial support.

Europe will likely fund that burden with more debt and moderate social-spending cuts—changes that could shift politics, but won’t trigger a Europe-wide or global crisis.

Against this backdrop, institutional interest is growing in stablecoins, DeFi and alternative financial rails as flexible cross-border instruments—driven by looser rules and room to experiment, not by an acute global shock.

Prices for bitcoin and other coins

Vladimir Cohen, trader:

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Base case for 2026: bitcoin and ether set new all-time highs. Key drivers: money-supply growth, Fed easing, speculative capital rotating out of precious metals and partly out of overheated tech. Passage and implementation of the CLARITY Act would reassure funds and investors previously wary of crypto.

Price also matters. At current levels, on a risk-reward basis, bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are much more attractive than three months ago.

There is also hope for a US strategic reserve of crypto assets—concrete steps on this could spur fresh upside.

Expect high volatility this winter as post-Christmas liquidity tightens. There are grounds for bitcoin to hold above $100,000 as early as January. However, if gold and silver keep rising steadily, BTC may trade between $80,000 and $105,000.

In May, [Fed chair] Jerome Powell will resign and will likely be replaced by a Trump appointee who will pursue quantitative easing. That would boost risk assets, including crypto. On those expectations, bitcoin could clear $120,000 and ether $4,500.

Launch of Staked Ethereum ETFs by BlackRock and others will revive inflows. I expect ether to outperform bitcoin as early as Q1 2026.

In April–May Ethereum may set a new ATH and trade between $4,800 and $6,200; BTC at $120,000–$140,000.

By autumn, in the base case, bitcoin reaches $150,000 and the second-largest crypto trades at $6,000–$7,000.

Ethereum at $7,500–10,000 is possible in Q3 2026, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and rising stablecoin issuance on Ethereum.

Volatility will likely stay elevated throughout the year, especially in H1, due largely to stockmarket instability from global repositioning around the Japanese yen.

Political risks remain, alongside the impact of Trump’s posts and statements. Ahead of the midterms, I am confident we will see liquidity injections and Fed rate cuts.

Promising altcoins

The strongest bases:

• Chainlink—arguably the best coin for TradFi integration. For steady growth it needs more buybacks and higher network activity; the groundwork is laid. Potential highs: $30–50.
• Solana. Strong marketing cemented its US positioning as the fastest, cheapest blockchain. The main problem is inflation and a lack of steady profits. Base case for H1: $200–320 with further upside potential.
• XRP shows the steadiest crypto-ETF inflows: $1bn in a month—the best among peers. The founders have vast financial and administrative clout (they have grown closer to the Trump administration). Good potential to $3–5 in H1 2026.
• Stellar—real utility in cross-border payments, RWA and CBDCs. With solid marketing it could reach $0.8–1.

Exchange tokens have strong communities but remain exposed to regulation, hacks and bankruptcies:

• BNB could rise to $1,450–1,600;
• Hyperliquid has incentives, but unlocks weigh on price. Projected high: $45–76;
• Mantle.

Other coins with potential: Bittensor, Hyperlane, Sui, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Babylon, Kite, Worldcoin, Jupiter, Oraichain and Ondo.