The introduction of the digital ruble will deprive banks of commission income from processing card payments, but in the long run the impact on their profitability will be moderate. This is reported by «Ведомости», citing a review by the National Rating Agency.
According to analysts, from 2027 the maximum annual commission losses for the banking system from the introduction of the Russian CBDC could reach ₽45–95 billion.
This calculation rests on banks’ consolidated financial results at the end of September 2023 and a digital ruble penetration of 8–10%. According to the Bank of Russia, profits across the sector over nine months amounted to ₽2.7 trillion.
At the same time, experts noted that banks would be able to offset losses by selling new products based on smart contracts and cashbacks from retailers.
Earlier, Rosbank stated that implementing the CBDC could require investments of ₽150 million.
In February, analysts estimated the annual losses for Russian banks from the introduction of the national digital currency at ₽50 billion.