Bernstein Identifies Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Rise to $200,000

Analysts at Bernstein have identified key catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to a target level of $200,000 by 2025, according to The Block.

Experts highlighted the significant roles of the SEC chairman and the Treasury Secretary in Donald Trump’s new administration after January 20.

According to Polymarket, Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is the preferred candidate for the Treasury Secretary position. His closest competitor is hedge fund manager Scott Bessent.

Bessent’s chances improved after receiving support from Elon Musk and Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., the nominee for Health Secretary. Former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh is also in close contention.

“Scott [Bessent] is favoured by stock markets for better positioning on macroeconomic and fiscal stability, but Lutnick is considered a stronger Bitcoin bull. In any case, we expect the SEC and Treasury chairs to be those who support cryptocurrencies,” the review states.

Another catalyst will be progress in creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, experts noted. They acknowledged that the legislative process might be prolonged.

“In this cycle, demand is led by institutions, corporations, and retail investors. In the next, it will be led by sovereign funds. The ‘seeds’ are being planted today. Political winds of change favour candidates who prefer cryptocurrency deregulation and oppose CBDCs,” analysts explained.

Regulatory Easing

Bernstein also identified key progress in fulfilling broader promises by Trump:

• creating a “powerful hub” for Bitcoin mining in the US;
• improving energy policy for mining and AI data processing facilities;
• rolling back Operation Choke Point 2.0;
• establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins with the potential adoption of a market structure bill that would push regulation towards CFTC oversight and eliminate the SEC’s enforcement approach.

“This will reflect not only in the rise of Bitcoin prices but also in […] ETH, SOL, and leading cryptocurrencies,” specialists explained.

Beyond ETFs

The easing of regulatory oversight could lead to simplified token registration and the creation of actively managed digital asset funds as opposed to passive crypto ETFs.

Additional drivers will include coin purchases into exchange-traded products, as well as by miners and corporations like MicroStrategy.

“The new era of cryptocurrency regulation is far from being fully appreciated. We believe investors should continue to hold Bitcoin proxy stocks for a longer term of ~12-18 months, at least. If you take a long position, we expect you will be on the right side of digital gold’s history,” specialists concluded.

Earlier, BCA Research also set a $200,000 target for Bitcoin in the current cycle.