The current downturn is described as the “weakest bear scenario” in the history of the leading cryptocurrency. According to Bernstein analysts, the decline in prices reflects merely a crisis of confidence among market participants, rather than fundamental issues with the asset, reports The Block.
Experts have reaffirmed a long-term bullish forecast for the leading cryptocurrency, maintaining a target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Bernstein noted the absence of typical crypto winter catalysts: systemic failures, bankruptcies of major players, or issues with hidden leverage.
On the contrary, the market is supported by capital inflows into ETF, corporate treasuries, and a favorable stance from U.S. politicians.
Specialists examined the main arguments of skeptics:
- lagging behind gold — Bitcoin is currently traded as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a mature “safe haven.” High interest rates are restraining growth, but ETF infrastructure is ready to absorb capital when conditions ease;
- ignoring AI trends — blockchain is better suited for the economy of autonomous AI agents than closed banking APIs;
- quantum threat — a risk for all digital finance, not just cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin can adapt through code updates;
- resilience of miners and holders — large companies like Strategy will withstand even a prolonged downturn (down to a price of $8,000 over five years). Miners diversify their income by providing capacity for AI data centers.
The market situation was also assessed by Glassnode.
At $70k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~16% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.
📉 https://t.co/0aCIeukc4X https://t.co/FDQJFI3F0M pic.twitter.com/c4FmotH9Cs
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 9, 2026
According to analysts, unrealized losses amount to ~16% of the market capitalization. Experts noted that the current market structure and level of investor “pain” resemble early May 2022.
The conclusions were supported by MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe. He pointed to the historical oversold condition of the market: the Fear & Greed Index fell to 5 points, and the RSI to 15. Such low values were only observed in 2018 and during the “COVID crash.”
Two important facts this morning:
— The Fear & Greed Index has hit 5. The lowest ever recorded.
— The RSI has hit 15. These two levels were only seen in 2018 & during the COVID crash.That’s why I don’t think we’ll see <$60K for #Bitcoin quickly.
It looks like we’re going to… pic.twitter.com/OdUjCckvzo
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 9, 2026
The trader considers a rapid drop below $60,000 unlikely. He anticipates consolidation and a gradual resumption of growth.
Back in March 2023, the Sharpe ratio indicated the final stage of the bear market. The indicator for the leading cryptocurrency fell to -10, the lowest since March 2023.