- Bernstein attributes the bullish sentiment to Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
- Standard Chartered highlights the potential for Bitcoin to return to its ATH before the US elections.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price is linked to the increasing chances of Republican candidate Donald Trump securing the presidency, according to Bernstein, as reported by The Block.
Experts noted a strong correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and the likelihood of the former White House head defeating his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.
According to Polymarket, the odds of such an outcome have jumped to 56.6%. The last time this figure was so high was at the end of July.
“Despite both candidates claiming support for digital assets, the crypto market bets are stronger amid Trump’s successes in the presidential race,” specialists commented.
Analysts pointed to a 78% chance of Republicans winning the Senate and a 39% probability of them gaining a majority in both houses of Congress.
In their view, MicroStrategy shares are a leading indicator of a potential “bullish” breakthrough. Since the beginning of the year, the Bitcoin company’s stock has risen by 191%, while digital gold has increased by 55%.
“MicroStrategy capitalized on the lows by issuing shares and convertible debt to replenish reserves in the leading cryptocurrency, and was rewarded for it,” the review stated.
The company’s stock price peaked in March this year before entering a multi-month correction phase. Unlike Bitcoin, the quotes have already exited the sideways trend and continue to accelerate, experts explained.
Earlier, Bernstein predicted a rise in the price of digital gold to $80,000-90,000 if Trump wins. A shift from Joe Biden to Harris would lead to a rollback to $40,000, without changing the long-term positive outlook, analysts added.
Standard Chartered’s View
Standard Chartered noted the potential for Bitcoin to revisit its ATH before the US elections.
As drivers, specialists cited:
- the increasing odds of Donald Trump’s victory;
- a significant inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs;
- increased activity in call options.
Experts highlighted the steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. In their view, this signals increased market volatility and demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Analysts also noted the potential for MicroStrategy to gain a new revenue stream through lending in the leading cryptocurrency. To date, the company has acquired 252,220 BTC, including 7,420 BTC in September.
MicroStrategy could become a “Bitcoin bank, with capital market products including common, convertible, preferred shares, and fixed-income instruments.”
According to Standard Chartered, the digital asset ecosystem is becoming increasingly integrated into TradFi.
Growing legitimacy alongside favorable political events could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin in the coming months. In the scenario of Trump’s loss, “the broader trend of cryptocurrency adoption will remain unchanged.”
Previously, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed confidence in the rising value of digital gold.