Binance Comments on Bitcoin’s Response to Trade Tariffs

The introduction of US trade tariffs has led to heightened caution in the market, affecting Bitcoin’s correlation profile with both stocks and traditional hedges, according to Binance Research analysts.

Initially, Bitcoin’s reaction was fragmented, but as the trade war deepened, BTC began aligning more closely with the S&P 500, contrasting with the steadily declining correlation with gold.

“These shifts suggest that macroeconomic factors—particularly trade policy and rate expectations—are increasingly determining the behaviour of the crypto market, temporarily overshadowing underlying demand dynamics,” the experts noted.

Overall, Bitcoin’s correlation with TradFi tends to increase during acute stress but weakens as conditions normalize.

The leading cryptocurrency showed some resilience, maintaining or recovering its level on days when traditional risk assets faltered. Separately, the long-term supply of holders continued its upward trajectory, reflecting conviction and limited capitulation during recent volatility.

“This behaviour suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin still has the potential to assert a more independent macro identity,” stated Binance Research.

Analysts speculate that if the Fed pivots to rate cuts and inflation remains high, digital gold could attract renewed interest as a form of “hard,” inflation-resistant money or be positioned as such through similar market narratives.

An extended trade war will test the industry’s resilience: potentially drying up retail flows, slowing institutional allocation, and limiting venture funding, Binance Research warned.

In the coming months, experts recommend monitoring macro catalysts, including core inflation data, global growth indicators, and the policies of world central banks, to assess the industry’s prospects.

According to Binance CEO Richard Teng, the resurgence of trade protectionism introduces significant volatility to the global market.

“In the short term, such macroeconomic uncertainty tends to trigger a risk-off reaction, with investors retreating as they await developments around growth, policy, and trade. However, looking ahead, this environment could also heighten interest in cryptocurrency as a non-sovereign store of value,” he believes.

Teng added that many long-term holders continue to view digital assets as resilient during periods of economic stress and shifting political dynamics.

As reported, Standard Chartered analysts have identified Bitcoin as a hedge tool against tariff risks.