Bitcoin at $500,000, the rise of AI agents and a turning point for TON: forecasts for 2025

It is 2025. Nature has cleaned up so much that P2P died and reverted to a historical model of exchange. Even ICOs have been resurrected.

Storm clouds gathered over the drawn dogs, but the “tighten the screws — DeFi keeps churning” scheme kept running. While China lifted its mining ban, AI agents moved on from shitposting and started making real money…

ForkLog spoke to experts, and their forecasts for the new year impress. Read on to learn whether bitcoin will reach $500,000 and Ethereum $12,000 before a global economic crash — and what TON ambassadors have to do with it.

On coming trends (and anti-trends) in the market 

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO Exved: 

There is a global trend towards creating state reserves of bitcoin, but how much of it will become reality is hard to say. I always cite the vivid example of CBDCs — we have been talking about them for at least seven years, yet in reality only four countries in the world, including Nigeria, have actually implemented a central bank digital currency. All other states have done nothing of the sort so far. 

So the distance may be very long: from the idea of buying bitcoins as a strategic reserve — which so far only El Salvador and Бутан are doing — to actual implementation. 

Although overall I view the idea positively and, rather, agree that in the end bitcoin’s market cap will be more comparable to gold’s than to that of large companies. The question is how long it will take — a year, ten or 50 years.

Mykhailo Chobanyan, founder of Kuna: 

If Elon Musk lasts in Donald Trump’s team for more than a year, the probability of putting cryptocurrency into foreign-exchange reserves is extremely high. 

But the most important thing is the application of blockchain technology. Against the backdrop of talk about $100,000 bitcoin, the attention to memes and degens, everyone forgot the main thing. I expect blockchain and artificial intelligence to become key drivers of efficiency gains worldwide. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is precisely about them. The state apparatus must become 10, 100 or even 1,000 times more efficient than it is now.

Alex Kruglov, chief commercial officer, Wallet:

After the success of Notcoin and the projects that followed (Dogs, Hamster Kombat, Major and others), we expect growth in casual games and crypto products integrated into the messenger. 

2025 could be a turning point for mass adoption of blockchain technologies thanks to products that offer the advantages of decentralized systems to ordinary users, and their rapid scaling within the messenger ecosystem.

This will also draw greater attention from regulators in different countries to the cryptocurrency market and lead to more consistent regulatory requirements.

Andrey Velikiy, founder of Allbridge:

Unfortunately, the obvious trend and anti-trend at the same time is meme coins, which everyone has been chasing lately. Retail investors have finally become disillusioned with the traditional funding model via VC and have started to feel like exit liquidity, which is essentially what they are. So they began looking for some saving alternative in meme coins, which in essence do nothing for the market — it is pure gambling.

I expect mechanisms to emerge for financing projects that are not traumatic for the retail investor. No one will invest endlessly in some drawn dogs on a blockchain. At the same time, retail has no prospect of price growth in complex tech projects before VC breaks even.

There must be some balance where a project can attract funding sensibly. Maybe this will be a return to 2017’s ICOs, when fundraising was done on understandable, flexible terms specifically from retail rather than the venture market. Then people will not fear being “exited on,” because they are the initial investors. In turn, founders will be able to raise capital and build something useful rather than just another piece of nonsense.

Taisiya Romanova, analyst and author of the GFiSchannel:

Judging by what is happening, the coming year should be positive for crypto, but there is a nuance. Along with positive rhetoric, regulation will intensify in many countries, albeit in a slightly different form. Much will be permitted, but under strict rules.

Want to trade? Trade — but provide all data about yourself and your wallets, otherwise a ban or a fine. Want to mine — be my guest! Pay a higher tariff and enter yourself into the registry. Opening a business related to crypto? Excellent, but do please register. Making a transaction? Go through all KYC/AML procedures. You are free, but within strictly limited bounds. 

The process is logical: while the industry was in a grey area, the opportunities for growth were much greater. However, and this matters for adoption, spontaneous development often went in a not-so-good direction, leading to significant losses for ordinary users. Therefore, in fact, visible relaxations will be tightenings. 

Whether that is good or bad is a philosophical question. The freedom and decentralization at the core of the cryptocurrency concept is perceived by many one-sidedly — “freedom only for me” — and not everyone is ready to take responsibility for their decisions and actions. Not everyone, frankly, has the knowledge to do so. And the state system does not want to lose control either, so the regulatory policy of “keep your friends close and your enemies closer” will be something of an anti-trend.

On the TON ecosystem

Alex Kruglov, chief commercial officer, Wallet:

A year ago the TON ecosystem had around 5 million active users, and when we spoke about plans to reach 500 million people in five years, it looked to many like a bold fantasy that was hard to believe. 

Today we have more than 100 million with us, for whom blockchain is still new. We proved that by integrating products into the messenger the ecosystem can grow very fast.

Next year we face a challenge — to turn these 100 million novices who “tried a couple of projects” into ambassadors of TON. 

At the same time, more and more existing crypto users from other blockchains, getting acquainted with the project, see the momentum toward goals and are engaging in developing DeFi tools. So 2025 will be a very interesting year of deep user immersion in TON and qualitative ecosystem development.

On bitcoin regulation in Russia 

Andrey Tugarin, founder of GMT Legal: 

I would call 2025 the year when the state will “level up” its control of the cryptocurrency market in Russia, applying new laws. It is hard to predict business’s reaction, but many are looking toward compliance. I think the trend will persist and scale. Overall it is a fairly logical step, as crypto regulation in Russia is still young and can forgive mistakes.

At the start of 2025 miners’ obligation will kick in to pass to the registry of the ФНС data on all their crypto wallets and volumes of mined cryptocurrency. 

This will be the first year with Russia’s updated tax code, though we will only learn its results and effects in 2026. Nonetheless, codifying the taxation of miners and traders, specific rates and the mechanism for calculating cryptocurrency exchange rates for income calculation will make communication with the tax authorities easier for many, including accountants. 

As for new bans on advertising and public offering of cryptocurrencies and related services. I suspect that business, especially that tied to innovation, will find various ways to avoid falling under the bans. A purely creative approach and careful wording can work wonders. 

In 2025, thanks to the Bank of Russia’s experiment, cross-border payments in cryptocurrency will proceed in a fully legal field. I am more interested in the sub-results. Creating a serious flow of cross-border crypto payments from Russian companies will be quite difficult due to obvious “technical nuances.” At the same time, within the experiment, platforms whose functionality is close to exchanges or swap services may be tested, which in turn will create a basis for bringing this into Russia’s legal field. 

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO Exved:

Let’s see the final experimental legal regime, how foreign trade settlements will work and what will happen with mining. I spoke with miners: they are very cautious about the new law and there is no queue to register yet. There is no proper registry, it is unclear who runs it and how — everyone is in a wait-and-see mode. 

Regarding the very harsh crackdown on all P2P schemes, which were among the drivers of crypto’s development in Russia, I am pessimistic. But I could be wrong, because cryptocurrency is one of the main ways to counter sanctions pressure and, in fact, this is what has seriously supported it in the country so far. 

The departure of [first deputy governor of the central bank Olga] Skorobogatova from her post will likely have a more positive than negative effect on all crypto schemes.

On bitcoin regulation in Ukraine 

Kyrylo Khomyakov, head of Binance for Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa:

Ukraine now has every chance to take a significant place in the global crypto ecosystem. As the country moves toward integration with the EU, the proposed unified MiCA rules can become not only a guidepost but an opportunity to adapt the best European practices to local specifics.

Binance has long and openly called for clear and understandable rules for the crypto industry and works with regulators on conditions that can provide clear and acceptable frameworks for cryptocurrency operations and reduce risks for investors and users.

НКЦБФР and the Ministry of Digital Transformation convey different approaches to taxation and regulation. But this “tug-of-war” only slows the development, implementation and improvement of the necessary regulatory framework. It is critically important to promptly agree and approve a unified regulatory option that meets the interests of all parties: users, the state and business.

This step will make it possible to attract new investment, receive a new stream of tax revenue in such a difficult moment for Ukraine, and in general allow the country to strengthen its leadership in digital transformation. 

Andrey Velikiy, founder of Allbridge:

I have always been a big opponent of regulation — especially when executed by our wise elected officials — when cryptocurrency is taxed so heavily that no one will operate in the clear. The market either goes fully into the shadows or folds altogether. 

From what I hear now from Ukrainian crypto founders who left the country, everyone’s mood is extremely pessimistic. All operations in Ukraine are being wound down; essentially only developers’ work remains. Card payments are difficult, many questions get asked about cards — it is getting even worse than it was, and it was already quite bad. So I think the new crypto law will simply finish the market off and that will be that. 

Some operations will remain, but again — there is currently no clear withdrawal mechanism for P2P. What crypto people do is start making arrangements with one another. It ends up being P2P like in the good old crypto times, when you don’t deposit to a centralized platform but call your friends and say: “Listen, send me Tether, and I’ll send you some hryvnia to your card and also top it up by IBAN so as not to run into limits.” A very strange model. Exchanges suffer the most, because people who need to deposit hryvnia still find some way.

On mining 

Alex Petrov, ex-CIO/CTO Bitfury group, CIO Hyperfusion.io AI HPC:

Network hashrate will continue to grow to records in 2025 if the bitcoin price remains stable or rises. In 2024 it already reached peaks above 920 EH/s (a weighted average of 823 EH/s), and in January–March 2025 it will exceed 1 ZH/s. Hardware will keep being refreshed, new farms will come online and new mining pools will emerge. 

Among the trends I highlight:

1. A shift to renewable energy. In 2025 miners will actively invest in green projects to bring down costs and meet regulations.
2. Global decentralization. Mining may shift to countries with cheaper electricity and stable regulation, for example in Latin America (Paraguay, Argentina), Africa or the Middle East.
3. Innovation. New cooling technologies, automation and software for optimizing energy consumption and operations control in data centres will continue to raise the bar, outpacing traditional businesses.
4. As countries accumulate bitcoin reserves, the next logical step will be support for and/or indirect ownership of mining companies. This will reduce investment risk and enable independent processing of bitcoin transactions.

In regulation, local bans are possible in countries where mining is associated with high energy use or a hunt for false environmental targets. For example, EU countries — Germany, the Netherlands, Finland — may introduce taxes and restrictions on the carbon footprint.

In developing countries — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan — licensing rules may tighten to control energy consumption.

More countries are likely to begin licensing miners’ activities, as in Kazakhstan.

Tightening ESG standards may affect investment in mining.

In the United States, new taxes on energy consumption or carbon emissions are possible.

Leading mining companies whose shares may be interesting for investment in 2025 include:

• Marathon Digital Holdings;
• Hut 8;
• Cipher Mining;
• Riot Platforms;
• CleanSpark;
• HIVE Digital Technologies;
• Core Scientific.

However, the risk of large bankruptcies remains. Companies with outdated equipment, poor analytics and slow control of business processes are vulnerable.

High competition in the mining market, regulatory pressure, extra taxation, and a lack of understanding of industry cycles, cash flows and technologies can reduce profitability. 

Companies with high leverage or that depend on unstable energy sources may face bankruptcy risk if bitcoin prices fall or hashrate growth sharply compresses margins.

Smaller companies may also be absorbed by larger players, intensifying industry consolidation.

On DeFi and AI

Andrey Velikiy, founder of Allbridge:

DeFi will see active development — people will look for workarounds because of regulation and magical laws like MiCA. The trick with DeFi is that even if a regulator demands something be blocked at the UI level, it cannot force a restriction on access to a smart contract. With technical skill you can carry out any operation, without going through the demeaning procedures you face on centralized exchanges. So the tighter the screws are turned, the better for DeFi. 

The only question is where companies will incorporate, because doing so in Europe is suicide. I personally consulted lawyers and thought about opening a legal entity in Estonia. But after looking at local laws, we realized we cannot comply in any way. If specific pressure starts against founders residing in Europe and this is somehow tied to legal entities and tax residency, they will simply leave the EU and that will be that.

Stepan Gershuni, principal at cyber.fund: 

The main theme of 2025 for the crypto and AI markets will be agents — for different reasons.

For crypto this is the freshest and potentially biggest narrative. Of course DeFi will keep developing, but it is already a large, mature industry. Other segments in crypto are either at an early stage, or it is unclear what to do with them at all. There are no crypto games as such, and NFT, DAOs and identity projects need regulation and therefore grow slowly.

Against this background I forecast the popularity of AI agents, because they allow an autonomous business with decentralized governance to be easily tokenized. Tokenholders can decide which model the AI agent uses, what tools and features it has, how much it spends on compute, and so on. In turn, it can earn and share dividends or royalties with tokenholders. 

The design space is huge — agents for trading, website creation, market research, spam, smart marketing, shooting 3D videos and much more. I think this will create a large bubble, but alongside outright bullshit a lot of great projects will emerge.

In the AI market over the past two years, large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta have developed actively. But real improvements can be assessed by a minimal number of users — because they are advancing in the most complex areas of science or programming.

Agents will make these AI models useful for real business with autonomous task execution. Only in 2024 did large enterprises and companies begin to deploy agents at industrial scale for customer support and coding. I think in 2025 developers’ and investors’ focus will finally shift to them. 

Today Web3 AI agents are just crap that shitposts on X, does nothing smart or useful and behaves like a meme coin. That is fun, but it cannot last — agents will become useful. A user will rather buy the token of an agent that can earn serious money long-term than that of the one that shouts the loudest nonsense on X. For instance, one that replaces a programmer and builds websites well. Such a token will rise in price thanks to the cash flows generated by a useful agent.

On the main cyberthreats 

Maria Sinitsyna, senior analyst, Digital Risk Protection at F.A.C.C.T.:

Investment fraud remains a popular theme among cybercriminals. In 2025 the trend will likely persist toward increased use of drainers to steal crypto assets and deepfakes of celebrities to promote them.

To attract audiences to phishing and fraudulent resources, attackers use many methods. They create spam mailings, fake broadcasts on video platforms, or hack the accounts of owners of specialist Telegram channels.

Crypto holders should be cautious about dubious resources that require wallet linkage, luring with loud news hooks, as happened with the arrest of Pavel Durov.

Crypto drainers are among the most common tools of cybercriminals specializing in cryptocurrencies. A victim logs into a phishing site to access their wallet and signs a transaction, thereby handing access to their assets to the malware operators.

In addition, there are many fraudulent crypto-exchange bots on Telegram; after topping up an account there, you will not be able to withdraw funds. As criminal techniques evolve, the average theft amount may also rise.

On geopolitics and economic shocks

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO Exved: 

I definitely expect global economic shocks — I just don’t know whether next year, in a year’s time, or in ten. It is enough to look at the curve of American, Chinese or any other public debt, at the financials of large European companies — things look grim. Even grimmer is that instead of fighting the looming global economic catastrophe, we are trying to destroy one another for some reason.

Marx, unfortunately, was right — crises of capitalism are inevitable. But if you douse the fire with gasoline, as has been done since 2008, sooner or later it will flare up such that it blows the entire global economy to kingdom come. Imagine hyperinflation in the dollar — that is crosses on the door.

What to do, I personally don’t know — I am not an economist and it is not my specialty. I can only say that it cannot go on like this. There will come a point when US federal revenues are lower than the amount needed to pay interest on external debt, even if you forget about social spending and everything else. And as soon as that happens — that’s it, default and goodbye.

On bitcoin and other coin prices

Vladimir Koen, trader:

Next year I expect global growth in both world stock markets and the cryptocurrency market thanks to a massive influx of liquidity. As a result we will see sustained rises in bitcoin, Ethereum and many other altcoins. 

Under a positive scenario, bitcoin could reach $500,000 in 2025 — that is quite realistic. It is in the interests of large players to drive its price up as fast as possible and switch on people’s FOMO so they buy at $150,000–200,000. 

For this, Michael Saylor’s scheme of buying bitcoin with funds from selling MicroStrategy stock and bonds must continue to work. In parallel, other notable companies should put the first cryptocurrency on their balance sheet, which has become easier thanks to changes in US accounting standards. If this process takes off, we will see an acceleration up to $200,000 as early as spring. 

The next factor is a softening of regulation in China, where mining and cryptocurrency operations are still officially banned. Against the backdrop of Trump’s efforts to make America the “crypto capital of the world”, China can easily join the game. It has cheap electricity, bitcoin on the government’s balance sheet, and a vast audience of a billion people. Even if 1% decide to buy cryptocurrency, it will strongly affect the market. 

Another interesting global trend I observe: people buy bitcoin and Ethereum as gifts for children and grandchildren as an investment tool. Changing social perceptions of crypto — not as a scam but as an investment asset — will ensure additional inflows of money to the market.

Under favourable conditions, steady demand will form — all bitcoin dips will be bought, for example by ETFs that already booked solid profit last year and plan to increase volumes. Another factor is a spillover of high returns from the stock market. Thus the flywheel may start up and the first cryptocurrency will update its ATH in a spiral.

And while bitcoin ETFs will largely be bought by retail, spot exchange-traded funds on Ethereum could well become a security for corporations. A steadily rising inflow will send the coin to new levels. Ethereum at $10,000–12,000 by year-end is a realistic scenario.

Following ether’s rise, especially in the first half, I expect a strong rally in alts. Whether short- or long-term depends on US legislation. In a positive scenario a big inflow is likely thanks to American companies’ greed and their drive to earn. 

I am confident about Hedera, Stellar, XRP, Chainlink, Maker and Solana. The latter will vie with BNB and XRP for third place among the largest cryptocurrencies, not counting Tether, which could drive its market cap to $500 billion depending on regulation and the new government’s stance. 

SOL could rise to $800–1,000, BNB to $1,500 and above. 

TRON stands apart. It depends on Tether and fee income, but even if TRC20 is banned in the EU, the coin has potential in the rest of the vast market.

Among US projects I would look at World (formerly Worldcoin) by Sam Altman — a very risky, volatile asset. I believe it can soar to $20–25, though its rise is constrained by huge unlocks. 

Other coins with good potential:

• Fantom, The Graph, Jupiter, Biconomy, Lido, Ethena, Aave, Aptos, Sui;
• RWA: Ondo Finance and Polymesh;
• meme coins: Dogecoin and Pepe;
• bitcoin ecosystem: Threshold Network, Stacks, THORChain;
• Base ecosystem: Aerodrome Finance and other coins;
• lesser-known: Tokocrypto, Pyth Network, UMA.

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO Exved: 

I do not share the general to-the-moon mood, because there is a wonderful saying: “buy the rumour — sell the news.” On 20 January 2025 Trump will be inaugurated, and from that moment he will be held to his campaign promises. In particular, ending the war in Ukraine in one day and a bunch of other things. It is clear he promised an order of magnitude more than he can actually do. 

As soon as people realize that his promises, including in the crypto industry, diverge seriously from reality and, in principle, from the physical capabilities of a US president — which are far from limitless — it will be a cold shower for everyone who piled into crypto and other markets. Note that everything is at highs — the Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold is rising. 

Therefore I am somewhat skeptical. We could still be catapulted higher, but it seems to me that from February–March a cooling will set in. The expectation of a bright future — that under Trump in 2025 it will be as it was under Trump in 2017 — is, to put it mildly, exaggerated.