In the next 15 years, Bitcoin could increase 64-fold, reaching $10.63 million. This forecast comes from former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, based on a power law model.
First cut from my 90 min deep dive with @Giovann35084111
This is the chart that you “can’t unsee”.
Non-intuitive aspects of the power law
In the next 15 years of Bitcoin, we expect the price
to go up not by 2, but by 64! pic.twitter.com/K1RiQSPt1M— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) March 2, 2024
Power law is a mathematical relationship between two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the initial values of these quantities. The dependence of one quantity on another is represented by a power function.
The manifestation of this law can be observed in a wide range of natural phenomena—from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of changes in the stock market.
Santostasi first presented his forecast in the subreddit r/Bitcoin in 2018.
Interest resurfaced in January 2024 after the model was mentioned by influencer Andrey Jaykh, who has 2.3 million followers.
According to the professor’s calculations, digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026, before dropping to $60,000.
In a discussion with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi stated that the model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price changes of the first cryptocurrency over long periods.
Over shorter periods, which are primarily the focus of the media, prices behave “chaotically,” he added.
“When you look at the logarithm of the y-axis, you start to see some pattern there,” he explained.
According to Santostasi, unlike the criticized S2F model by PlanB, the power law is logarithmic rather than exponential. In other words, Bitcoin’s price should not constantly rise over time. Adjustments can also be made for significant fluctuations during 2020–2023.
Krueger outlined the power law calculations applied to the first cryptocurrency. According to his conclusions, the rate will reach $96,360 over the next two years.
Hyperbitcoinization timeline and the meaning of 5.8
——————————————————-I have done a lot of thinking over the last 24 hours on the meaning of power laws, and the implication for future Bitcoin prices.
But as i asked @Giovann35084111 the… pic.twitter.com/4iSP0IQMse
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) March 2, 2024
By 2033, the asset’s capitalization will surpass that of gold. By this time, its digital counterpart will be valued at $1 million. Krueger suggested that the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $10.63 million by 2045.
Veteran industry figure and Blockstream CEO Adam Back has predicted Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 before the upcoming halving in April 2024.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated the possibility of reaching levels between $750,000 and $1 million by 2026.