Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $65,000, Say Experts

To continue its rebound from June lows, Bitcoin must surpass the $65,000 mark. This level corresponds to the “cost price” of coins acquired by short-term investors, writes CoinDesk.

In other words, speculators holding Bitcoin at $63,300 at the time of writing are at a loss and may sell their coins upon reaching breakeven, noted Blockware Intelligence. Analysts observed that digital gold prices fell below the aggregate cost of short-term holders for the first time since August 2023.

“Last summer, under similar circumstances, the price remained in a sideways trend for another two months before breaking upwards again,” added the specialists.

The equivalent “cost price” for hodlers is less than $20,000. For this market segment, the current 15% drop from the ATH in March is a routine event, according to Blockware.

“During the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin experienced 10 pullbacks of 20% or more. This is a healthy correction in a bull market. Volatility shakes out weak hands and provides opportunities for strategic capital allocation for those with a longer time horizon,” the experts indicated.

Seasonality and Mt.Gox

According to Coinglass, historically, the price of the leading cryptocurrency in July has increased by an average of 7.4%, following a negative close in the previous month.

This correlation could be disrupted by coin sales from the German government and the distribution of compensations by Mt.Gox trustees.

CIO of ZeroCap, Jonathan de Wet, in a conversation with Cointelegraph, expressed expectations of Bitcoin falling to “key” support at $57,000.

Macroeconomic Data

Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, Jag Kuner, in an interview with Decrypt, noted that changes in regulatory policy and the release of macroeconomic statistics could play a decisive role.

The specialist suggested a scenario where economic data comes out worse than expected. This could weaken traditional markets and increase interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative investments.

“Historically […] during economic downturns, investors often turn to digital gold as a means of capital preservation,” the expert emphasized.

Head of Research at DigitalX, Pratik Kala, forecasted consolidation and low volatility in the cryptocurrency market in July.

“Bitcoin is seeking the next major catalyst for upward movement. It is not yet on the horizon, but everything will change as the US elections approach,” he indicated.

Impact of ETFs

Kaiko highlighted the decline in weekend trading volume to a historic low following the launch of BTC-ETFs.

In 2019, weekends accounted for up to 28% of the leading cryptocurrency’s turnover, but by 2023, this figure had fallen to 16%.

Specialists noted that BTC-ETF trading occurs during stock market hours. Meanwhile, the proportion of coins changing hands in the last hour of the session has increased due to fixing.

“Since the launch of exchange-traded funds, this window [between 3 and 4 PM New York time] has become the second most popular time for Bitcoin trading, although the effect is only observed on weekdays,” analysts commented.

Another factor in the reduction of volatility could be the closure of cryptocurrency banks Signature and Silicon Valley in March 2023, according to Bloomberg. Both banks operated round-the-clock networks that allowed market makers to place buy and sell orders for cryptocurrencies, but after the closure of services, major players became less inclined to provide liquidity under low trading volume conditions.

Analysts at Bitfinex suggested that the leading cryptocurrency is currently in a consolidation phase amid sell-offs by long-term holders.

Earlier, CryptoQuant predicted the emergence of conditions for a rally resumption in the third quarter.