The CryptoQuant analyst known as Kripto Mevsimi has described 2024-2025 as a period of the “largest release” of long-term Bitcoin supply in history.
Largest Long-Term Bitcoin Supply Release in History
“Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle, but potentially a transition in who holds it and why—and long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of that shift.” – By @KriptoMevsimi pic.twitter.com/LfXE7tImtC
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 22, 2026
The expert examined the revived supply metric for coins that have not moved for more than two years. Current sales volumes of such assets have surpassed those of the bull cycles in 2017 and 2021.
Historically, the activation of “dormant” bitcoins has coincided with sharp price spikes and an influx of speculative capital. The current activity occurs with less market noise but involves significantly older coins.
According to the analyst, this indicates a structural capital rotation. Early investors, who bet on the asset’s scarcity and self-custody, are exiting their positions. Bitcoins are transitioning to new participants whose decisions depend on price, macroeconomics, and global liquidity.
Data from early 2026 showed a slowdown in sales compared to the peaks of the past two years, but a complete trend reversal has yet to occur, noted Kripto Mevsimi. Over the year, it will become clear whether this was a temporary depletion of sales or the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Fragile Balance and Selling Pressure
The on-chain structure of Bitcoin remains fragile. The price fluctuates around key cost levels of coins, and convincing signals of long-term accumulation are absent, according to a Glassnode report.
href=»https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw»>#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/zQyLdUEMAI pic.twitter.com/JxKYdQ9CHO
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 21, 2026
Experts noted the persistent supply overhang: recent buyers are creating resistance, limiting growth potential. Short-term rallies are used for exiting positions (distribution).
The market operates in a moderate correction mode. Analysts highlighted two key levels:
- Support: $81,100 — the True Market Mean Price level.
- Resistance: ~$98,400 — the average purchase price of short-term holders.
Attempts to consolidate above these levels encounter sales from investors who accumulated positions in Q1-Q3 2025. The current structure resembles the situation at the beginning of 2022, when repeated failures to overcome the breakeven level of recent buyers prolonged consolidation.
Who is Selling?
The main pressure comes from participants who bought coins 3-6 months ago. They are realizing losses as the price returns to their entry levels (above $110,000), aiming to reduce risks.
Additional pressure is created by a large supply cluster above $100,000, formed by long-term holders. Without a strong influx of new demand, these levels will remain difficult to surpass.
There has also been an increase in trader activity, realizing minimal profits (0-20%). Market participants prefer a quick exit from positions with a small markup, not counting on the trend’s continuation.
Spot Market and Derivatives
The situation has improved on spot platforms. Binance and aggregated data show a return to buying. Coinbase, previously a source of selling pressure, has reduced activity, stabilizing prices.
However, corporate treasuries are acting passively. Flows from companies are episodic and hover near neutral values, not providing systemic support to the market.
Experts from Glassnode described the derivatives market as a “ghost town”:
- futures volumes are compressed, leverage usage is low;
- the options market prices risks only for the near term, with long-term expectations remaining stable;
- dealer positioning (gamma) below $90,000 is negative, which increases volatility during declines. Above this level, “long gamma” works, which, on the contrary, dampens any growth attempts.
According to analysts, Bitcoin is finding a bottom not due to an influx of new money, but because of a pause in sales. The market is in a low liquidity mode and awaits a catalyst capable of rekindling interest from major players.
Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno reported that for the first time in history, the share of “new” whales in the realized capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has exceeded that of long-term holders.