In January, the US Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% when adjusted for seasonal variations. Annually, the CPI was 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December.
The primary driver of the monthly increase was housing costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% in January and by 2.5% over the past 12 months.
Contributing to inflation were airline tickets, hygiene products, recreation, medical care, communication, and used cars. Prices for household goods, appliances, and vehicle insurance decreased.
Prior to the release of the statistics, Wall Street’s consensus forecast for the CPI anticipated a 0.26% monthly rise and a 2.5% annual increase, reflecting a decrease from December’s 0.31% and 2.7%, respectively.
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January
Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December)
Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from 0.24% in Dec, but y/y ticking down from… pic.twitter.com/g3S5b0EM8D
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 12, 2026
For the Core CPI, financial firms also predicted a 12-month reduction to 2.5%. Leading WSJ economic correspondent Nick Timiraos highlighted the “unusually wide” range of opinions on the monthly figure, spanning from 0.25% to 0.42%.
“This indicates additional uncertainty regarding the year-end effects, and the deferral of tariffs to future events adds even more ambiguity,” noted the expert.
Following the BLS press release, Bitcoin prices began to rise, climbing from around $67,300 to approximately $68,500.
Over the past day, the cryptocurrency’s rate increased by nearly 2% (CoinGecko).
The S&P 500 showed increased volatility at the start of trading but remains roughly at the opening level of $6834 at the time of writing. The NASDAQ 100 behaved similarly, with a current value of $24,627.
Swap and options markets express near-total confidence that the Fed will maintain the current key rate range of 3.5-3.75% following the March 18 meeting. The probability of this scenario is estimated at 92.3%. This figure has increased by 0.7% over the past day and by 10.7% over the past month.
Analysts at JPMorgan believe that the regulator will keep the rate unchanged until the end of 2026.