Bitcoin to Become Scarcer Than Gold: Expert Predicts $500,000 Valuation

Following the upcoming halving, Bitcoin is expected to become scarcer than gold and real estate, potentially reaching a price of around $500,000, according to popular blogger PlanB.

After April halving, bitcoin will be scarcer than gold and real estate. It would surprise me if bitcoin market cap (<$1T) will stay below gold market cap (>$10T). This implies a BTC price >$500k (>$10T/20m).

Gold S2F-ratio ~60
Real Estate S2F-ratio ~100
Bitcoin S2F-ratio ~110

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 3, 2024

Based on his Stock-to-Flow model, the expert suggested that the digital asset’s market capitalization might not surpass gold’s figure of over $10 trillion. However, nearing this mark and an issuance of 20 million coins could lead to the projected price, PlanB calculated.

He did not specify a timeline for when the price might reach this level.

Meanwhile, the trader identified a minimum price level below which, in his view, the cryptocurrency will not fall.

The 200-week moving average (200WMA) of Bitcoin’s price has reached $31,000, and historically, the price has never fallen below this metric. PlanB suggested that the asset might “never see” this level again.

Bitcoin 200 week moving average is 31k. When bitcoin price diverges from 200WMA, in accumulation (blue) and bull markets (orange/red), bitcoin has never gone below 200WMA. So 31k might be the absolute floor, and bitcoin might never see 31k ever again IMO. Also 200WMA is rising… pic.twitter.com/3kqSbXWLjU

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 3, 2024

The expert also noted the rise of the 200WMA.

At the end of January, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggested Bitcoin could fall below $35,000 due to several factors, including the policy of the Fed, military conflicts in the Middle East, and the US presidential elections.

An analyst under the pseudonym Ali predicted a drop in digital gold to $32,700, according to patterns from previous cryptocurrency cycles. Placeholder venture firm partner Chris Burniske deemed it likely for the price to fall to the $30,000-36,000 range, with a subsequent bottom at $20,000.

MN Trading Consultancy founder Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin is “stuck in a range of equilibrium.” After a period of consolidation, he expects a move to $48,000 before the halving and a new high in the second half of 2024.

#Bitcoin stuck in a range, markets are in an equilibrium.

I’d be looking at the range-bound construction for the coming months.

Pre-halving a final run towards $48K, after that consolidation, before the breakout towards an ATH in Q3/Q4 of 2024. pic.twitter.com/jZznulSiwJ

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 5, 2024

Crypto analyst known as CryptoHamster observed the formation of a bullish pennant on the digital gold chart. Despite potential short-term downward movement, the price could rise to $45,500 in the near future, the expert believes.

It looks like $BTC is printing a bullish pennant. Let’s wait for the breakout (currently, it is threatening to break it to the downside instead), but if all goes well, we can see at least 45550. #bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/QS0GXB5XVQ

— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) February 4, 2024

According to a survey conducted by PlanB in August 2023, nearly 60% of participants believe a bull market will begin after the halving.

In January, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicted Bitcoin would reach $170,000 by 2025. 

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel is also confident that the cryptocurrency will peak in the third to fourth quarters of 2024. However, he anticipates a pullback to $40,000-50,000, followed by growth to a new ATH of $120,000, according to the head of the mining company.

Co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, Tom Lee, predicted bolder figures: $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $500,000 within the next five years.