In early July, Bitcoin-address holders with balances from 100 to 10,000 BTC increased their positions by 60,000 BTC — to 9.12 million BTC. Santiment analysts shared similar observations.
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🐳 #Bitcoin‘s whale addresses holding between 100 to 10k $BTC kicked off July with a 60k $BTC accumulation apike, the highest daily spike of 2021. These addresses hold 9.12M coins combined after holding 100k less $BTC just 6 weeks ago. https://t.co/RmbojWllGv pic.twitter.com/9Mp65UfGyV
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 4, 2021
Analysts noted that this was the largest daily spike in accumulation by large holders so far this year.
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Santiment also pointed to a drop in the share of coins held on exchanges to the lowest in six months. Experts see in this a sign of “reduced risk of further large sell-offs”.
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The ratio of #Bitcoin‘s supply on exchanges has
encouragingly slid down to its lowest since early January. The 6-month low is a promising sign, as it generally will indicate that there is a decreased risk of more major $BTC selloffs. https://t.co/vFh7pcjUmX pic.twitter.com/t3duiStvg6— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 5, 2021
Drawing on on-chain data in CoinDesk, analysts said that the bottom had likely passed. They noted that, since the second half of February, whale selling had hindered the market’s recovery. It was the actions of large players that lay behind the rally from October 2020 to record highs, they added.
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Celsius.Network founder Alex Mashinsky noted in a thread that Bitcoin has undergone two major waves of selling.
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The first occurred at a peak near $65,000 after the FOMO effect among retail investors had run its course. It led to losses totaling $3 billion.
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After that, another decline of roughly the same magnitude followed, driven by FUD due to events in China.
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Mashinsky expects a third, final wave of selling.
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“It will be sparked primarily by institutional investors, who increased their positions in the Bitcoin trust Grayscale (GBTC) by $20 billion under the influence of FOMO. Hedge funds in January/February used Genesis Trading and other platforms to buy BTC with up to 4:1 leverage. The first unlock of their shares will occur this week. GBTC sales of $5 billion could push Bitcoin back to $29,000,”— wrote Celsius.Network’s CEO.
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At least $5B will have to be unwound off $GBTC which may take BTC prices back to the $29k levels
After this July sell off we should see smooth sailing for the rest of the year as we break new ATH on our way to the
$140-160k price range per BTC…— Alex Mashinsky ©️ (@Mashinsky) July 3, 2021
In the medium term, Mashinsky expects that after July’s sell-off there will be a period of calm — Bitcoin will eventually reach $140 000 – 160 000, before retreating to $90 000 by year-end.
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According to CNBC’s poll, only 6% of managers believed that Bitcoin could return to the $60 000 mark by year-end.
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Earlier, JPMorgan analysts did not rule out a drop in the price of digital gold to $25 000.
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